The following appeared in a health newsletter."A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that numbe

In this argument, the author suggests that the government pay more attention to educations about bicycle safety than encouraging bicyclists to wear helmets. This claim is based on statistics reflecting an increase of helmets wearing and bicycle-caused accidents, an assertion that wearing helmets causes more risks, and the conclusion that education program will be more effective than using helmets. Nonetheless, the argument contains several assumptions that seriously undermine the cogency of its conclusion.

As the author mentions, a increasing number of accidents caused by bicycling implies that bicycles tend to cause more accidents today than ten years ago. It is apparently premised that the quantity of bicycles is stable. Yet no one can deny the probability that the number of bicycles experienced a more distinct increase during the last decade. For instance, there are four times bicycles as much as it was ten years ago, in which case the proportion of bicycle-caused accidents decreases instead of increases. Therefore more statistics about the total number of bicycles is needed to illustrate the inference.

Even though the percentage of accidents caused by bicycling distinctly rises, the author can hardly conduct that the rise is definitely led by the illusive sense of security of wearing helmets. He obviously assumes there to be no other probable causes. Nonetheless, he fails to preclude the possibility that a large property of victims disregard the safety performance of bicycles or drink alcohol before cycling, which consequently causes severe injuries. Thus the author needs to provide more information regarding the authenticity and validity of the second survey and carefully discount other factors that might have lead to accidents.

Even if the use of helmets truly leads to more accidents, the author should not rush to the conclusion that education program is a better solution to the safety problem. He clearly approves the assumption that education on safety issues will contribute to the enhancement of security awareness and thereby reduce the occurrence of accidents. The truth might be, however, bicyclists have been too tired of taking lessons to concentrate on this program any more, which could seriously impair its effectiveness. Accordingly, the author should present more evidence about the reliability of education program so as to demonstrate its superiority to other solutions.

Conclusively, the author proposes that government attach importance to educations other than helmets use. While some unfounded assumptions contained impair the validity of his argument and requires more convincing demonstration.