The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
It is concluded that the client should invest in a business which operates retail sales of heating oil because homes in northeastern areas of United States traditionally used oil for heating and it is forecasted that cold winters are to be expected for several years to come. This conclusion cannot be drawn from the data provided without answering the following questions.
First, how accurate is Waymarsh University's weather forecats for the following years? As we have all experienced, weather forecasts tend not to be really accurate, even about next few days, let alone next several years. It is possible that their forecast is just an estimation based on basic observations. Also, this forecast about long cold winters in the nest years might be biased in favor of corporations producing and selling fuels. In any of these cases, the argument is flawed.
Further, do these newly built homes use the oil for heating? It is quite possible that new homes are equiped with modern heating technologies that operate with electricity, not oil. Also, if these homes are also provided with natural gas, they might use gas as their main fuel source instead of oil. Especially with the omnipresent advertisements for green fuels these days, new homes are even more likely to choose more environment-friendly fuels instead. In any of these scenarios, the argument does not hold water.
Moreover, even if the forecast is impartial and accurate, and homes still use oil as their main fuel for heating during winter, still another question remains unanswered: Are the other activities that this company operate as profitable as retail sale of heating oil? What if company's other operations are counterproductive and the overall performance does not yield enough profit? What if these other activities impose environmental taxes on the company and hence, cause the overall profit to sink drastically? If any of these situations happen, the conclusion stated cannot be drawn.
All in all, the current argument, without any more pieces of information, is extremely flawed. However, a better evaluation of this argument is possible if the aforementioned questions are answered.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 18 15
No. of Words: 347 350
No. of Characters: 1776 1500
No. of Different Words: 180 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.316 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.118 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.849 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 122 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 95 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 64 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 41 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 19.278 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 10.054 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.5 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.298 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.539 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.081 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
It is concluded that the client should i...
^^^
Line 3, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...ut answering the following questions. First, how accurate is Waymarsh Universi...
^^^
Line 5, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
... these cases, the argument is flawed. Further, do these newly built homes use ...
^^^
Line 7, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...os, the argument does not hold water. Moreover, even if the forecast is impart...
^^^
Line 9, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...he conclusion stated cannot be drawn. All in all, the current argument, withou...
^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, first, hence, however, if, moreover, really, so, still
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 22.0 19.6327345309 112% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 5.0 12.9520958084 39% => OK
Conjunction : 6.0 11.1786427146 54% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 7.0 13.6137724551 51% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 26.0 28.8173652695 90% => OK
Preposition: 34.0 55.5748502994 61% => OK
Nominalization: 10.0 16.3942115768 61% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1826.0 2260.96107784 81% => OK
No of words: 347.0 441.139720559 79% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.26224783862 5.12650576532 103% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.31600926901 4.56307096286 95% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.90929862173 2.78398813304 105% => OK
Unique words: 187.0 204.123752495 92% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.538904899135 0.468620217663 115% => OK
syllable_count: 581.4 705.55239521 82% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 6.0 4.96107784431 121% => OK
Article: 5.0 8.76447105788 57% => OK
Subordination: 4.0 2.70958083832 148% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 18.0 19.7664670659 91% => OK
Sentence length: 19.0 22.8473053892 83% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 60.4974491861 57.8364921388 105% => OK
Chars per sentence: 101.444444444 119.503703932 85% => OK
Words per sentence: 19.2777777778 23.324526521 83% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.33333333333 5.70786347227 58% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 5.0 5.25449101796 95% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 6.0 8.20758483034 73% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.88822355289 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 7.0 4.67664670659 150% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.187457727869 0.218282227539 86% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0528643102047 0.0743258471296 71% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.062584721143 0.0701772020484 89% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.104524361379 0.128457276422 81% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0845500117529 0.0628817314937 134% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.0 14.3799401198 90% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 43.73 48.3550499002 90% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.9 12.197005988 98% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.23 12.5979740519 105% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.45 8.32208582834 102% => OK
difficult_words: 85.0 98.500998004 86% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.6 11.1389221557 86% => OK
text_standard: 13.0 11.9071856287 109% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 70.83 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.25 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.