The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The prompt suggests the prediction of the memo about the increment in the demand of heating oil in the northeastern United States. In spite of showing certain logics, the premise of the memo is largely affevted with some logical flaws and so those flaws are making the arguement a fallacy. These flaws in the assumptions are to be mentioned followed by necessary clarifications.
To begin with - the author of the memo believes that - there will be no alternatives of heating oil for the northeastern people to proceed. Believing that - the author built up his later reasoning. But what if the northeastern people have been able to find out any alternative of the heating oil? Suppose the people of the northeastern region have acknowledged the coming below-normal temperature prediction and sensed that various companies will take the advantage of this situation to profit more from them (the residents). So, they might have develoved any technology or any alternative which will help most of them to respite themselves from the easy prey of the profit-mongers. For example- they might have developed a room heater for their domestic use. They might be able conduct their official activites from home to save the fuel of their cars for future use and so on. If the residents of the northeastern region come with a more pragmatic alternatives to the heating oil - then the prediction of the author of the memo might be a faulty one.
Second to consider is that - the author believes that - the people who will go on to live in the northeastern region even with the clement weather forecasts. He has ignored the possiblity that - except the recent population growth, people might not be interested enough to go to the northeastern region and start to live their because of the weather forecast of that region. They might decide to live there later, after the end of the predicted clement weatehr, altogether. Morever, there is no proper evidence regarding the authenticity of the weather forecast as we know how unpredictable those weather predictions are. It might not be of great surprise if the northeastern regin does not expereicne the same below-normal temperature in the coming years. May be because it already had experienced the extreme one in the previous season and that was why people used to use the heating oil. But what if the people oif the northeastern region, being sincered - have already planned a contingency way to survive in the tough cold weather, only if it repeats and becasue of that they might not need the heating oil at all. If the mentioned conjecture is proved to true then the findings of the memo might not hold its firmness.
Thridly, the auther in no way came to assumed that - as heating oil has been the traditional source for fuel heating for the residents of that regiono, it will also follow the same in the coming years. But what if the residents are not willing to maintain that tradition? What if the residents of the region are not likely to spedn the fuel and they might try to consume it for future purpose? It can be the case that they might cut off their outdoor activites and other commitments in case the cold weather happens to persists. Even if they do not what is the guarantee that they will likely to use the heating oil of the same company? It might be the case that the people are not much satisfied with the service of the mentioned company and so they are not willing to buy oil from them even though the demand of oil remains in rise. Also, we can not undo the probablity that - the tough time might not withstand long, resulting curtailing in the demand of the heating oil.
So, looking at all the factors and points mentioned in the essay, it can be safely regarded that - necessary evidences and proper answers of certain questions are needed to guide to a concrete conclusion as the prompt is currently devoid of these and so any conclusion derived from this will be a faulty one to consider.
| Post date | Users | Rates | Link to Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-09 | shekhar | 64 | view |
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| 2022-08-11 | avidwriter1771 | 68 | view |
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 14 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 18 2
No. of Sentences: 27 15
No. of Words: 686 350
No. of Characters: 3201 1500
No. of Different Words: 274 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 5.118 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.666 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.624 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 216 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 158 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 98 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 77 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 25.407 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 10.019 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.741 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.32 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.489 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.141 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 878, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...of their cars for future use and so on. If the residents of the northeastern regio...
^^
Line 5, column 56, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...der is that - the author believes that - the people who will go on to live in the...
^^
Line 5, column 1122, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
... might not need the heating oil at all. If the mentioned conjecture is proved to t...
^^
Line 7, column 520, Rule ID: TO_NON_BASE[1]
Message: The verb after "to" should be in the base form: 'persist'.
Suggestion: persist
...nts in case the cold weather happens to persists. Even if they do not what is the guaran...
^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, if, look, may, regarding, second, so, then, for example, in spite of, to begin with
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 29.0 19.6327345309 148% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 25.0 12.9520958084 193% => OK
Conjunction : 16.0 11.1786427146 143% => OK
Relative clauses : 19.0 13.6137724551 140% => OK
Pronoun: 55.0 28.8173652695 191% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 94.0 55.5748502994 169% => OK
Nominalization: 11.0 16.3942115768 67% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 3270.0 2260.96107784 145% => OK
No of words: 686.0 441.139720559 156% => Less content wanted.
Chars per words: 4.7667638484 5.12650576532 93% => OK
Fourth root words length: 5.11777311996 4.56307096286 112% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.68810064359 2.78398813304 97% => OK
Unique words: 279.0 204.123752495 137% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.406705539359 0.468620217663 87% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 1022.4 705.55239521 145% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 11.0 4.96107784431 222% => Less pronouns wanted as sentence beginning.
Article: 3.0 8.76447105788 34% => OK
Subordination: 4.0 2.70958083832 148% => OK
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 27.0 19.7664670659 137% => OK
Sentence length: 25.0 22.8473053892 109% => OK
Sentence length SD: 56.8494751584 57.8364921388 98% => OK
Chars per sentence: 121.111111111 119.503703932 101% => OK
Words per sentence: 25.4074074074 23.324526521 109% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.48148148148 5.70786347227 61% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 4.0 5.25449101796 76% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 7.0 8.20758483034 85% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 11.0 6.88822355289 160% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 9.0 4.67664670659 192% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.23750291885 0.218282227539 109% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0776439608758 0.0743258471296 104% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0619240596427 0.0701772020484 88% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.131556912358 0.128457276422 102% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0793837562559 0.0628817314937 126% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.7 14.3799401198 95% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 54.56 48.3550499002 113% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.9 12.197005988 98% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 10.68 12.5979740519 85% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.89 8.32208582834 95% => OK
difficult_words: 131.0 98.500998004 133% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 10.5 12.3882235529 85% => OK
gunning_fog: 12.0 11.1389221557 108% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Write the essay in 30 minutes.
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.