"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Based on these developments, we predict a large increase in the demand for heating oil. Therefore, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The argument recommends investment in Consolidated industries, one of whose major business operations is retail sale of home heating oil, based on the prediction of local weather forecasters. There are many questions which needs to be answered in order to evaluate the argument. Few of the questions are discussed below.
Firstly, Is the prediction accurate and who made the local weather forecast prediction? Is the prediction made by reputed organization? If the prediction is inaccurate, then it undermines the validity of the recommendation. Local weather forecasters made their prediction based on the fact that the region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures. They predicted that this weather pattern will continue for several years. They showed no evidence for the prediction. They did not tell whether United States is continually experiencing below-average temperatures in the previous years. So, their prediction does not provide support for the recommendation.
Homes in northeastern United states have traditionally used oil for heating. Secondly, Is there any evidence that most of the people in that region are still using oil as major fuel for heating? If only few people in that region use oil for heating, then it will be waste of money if people invest in Consolidated industries. If there is proper evidence that mostly everyone in that region use oil, then it can provide some support for the recommendation.
Thirdly, Will there be profits if people invest in Consolidated industries although their major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil? For instance, if only few people buy home heating oil from Consolidated industries, then there will be no profits if investment is made in Consolidated industries. If majority of the population use home heating oil for heating and they buy the oil from Consolidated industries, then it provides support for the recommendation.
There are many questions which needs to be answered in order to evaluate the recommendation. If the above few questions are answered, it helps in evaluating the argument. The answers to these questions helps in deciding whether to follow recommendation or not.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 2 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 1 2
No. of Sentences: 21 15
No. of Words: 343 350
No. of Characters: 1813 1500
No. of Different Words: 140 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.304 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.286 4.6
Word Length SD: 3.088 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 128 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 106 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 79 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 54 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 16.333 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 6.592 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.476 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.33 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.57 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.129 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 482, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Three successive sentences begin with the same word. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
... showed no evidence for the prediction. They did not tell whether United States is c...
^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
first, firstly, if, second, secondly, so, still, then, third, thirdly, for instance
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 19.0 19.6327345309 97% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 5.0 12.9520958084 39% => OK
Conjunction : 3.0 11.1786427146 27% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 11.0 13.6137724551 81% => OK
Pronoun: 21.0 28.8173652695 73% => OK
Preposition: 38.0 55.5748502994 68% => OK
Nominalization: 25.0 16.3942115768 152% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1863.0 2260.96107784 82% => OK
No of words: 343.0 441.139720559 78% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.43148688047 5.12650576532 106% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.30351707066 4.56307096286 94% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.20313310822 2.78398813304 115% => OK
Unique words: 145.0 204.123752495 71% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.422740524781 0.468620217663 90% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 594.0 705.55239521 84% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 2.0 8.76447105788 23% => OK
Subordination: 6.0 2.70958083832 221% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 0.0 4.22255489022 0% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 21.0 19.7664670659 106% => OK
Sentence length: 16.0 22.8473053892 70% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 41.235840695 57.8364921388 71% => OK
Chars per sentence: 88.7142857143 119.503703932 74% => OK
Words per sentence: 16.3333333333 23.324526521 70% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.95238095238 5.70786347227 69% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 1.0 5.25449101796 19% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 7.0 8.20758483034 85% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 7.0 6.88822355289 102% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 7.0 4.67664670659 150% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.323723242755 0.218282227539 148% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.103124759394 0.0743258471296 139% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.105898183585 0.0701772020484 151% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.158737340509 0.128457276422 124% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0960656229544 0.0628817314937 153% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.3 14.3799401198 86% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 46.78 48.3550499002 97% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.7 12.197005988 88% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.92 12.5979740519 110% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.7 8.32208582834 93% => OK
difficult_words: 71.0 98.500998004 72% => More difficult words wanted.
linsear_write_formula: 8.0 12.3882235529 65% => OK
gunning_fog: 8.4 11.1389221557 75% => OK
text_standard: 8.0 11.9071856287 67% => The average readability is low. Need to imporve the language.
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.