The following is a memorandum from the business manager of a television station."Over the past year, our late-night news program has devoted increasingly more time to covering national news and less time to covering weather and local news. During the same

The business manager claims that the reduction in weather and local news is directly responsible for the reduction in advertising revenues. The manager backs this up with complaints received from viewers. On examination, this argument requires further evidence to back up the strong recommendations it makes.

The manager writes that most complaints have concerned coverage of weather and local news but there is no mention of the nature of these complaints. The complaints could possibly be about the accuracy of the news rather than the amount of the news. Also, there is no mention of the trend in complaints. It is possible that the overall number of complaints have reduced since the switch in programming and only a few dedicated number of persons are responsible for the complaints.

The business manager also writes that local businesses have canceled their contracts in the time since the change in programming. That the change in programming happened first does not mean it led to this reduction. There are many other possible explanations. The local economy could be taking a hit and businesses are cutting back on costs. Another television station in the area may have significantly lowered its advertising costs and local businesses are switching solely for this purpose. This might also be an industry-wide phenomenon with advertisements increasingly moving away from the television to the internet.

In all, to strengthen or weaken the business manager's recommendation, we need the following additional information: recent changes the competition have made; recent changes in the television station's environment beyond the control of the station; the nature and volume of complaints made by viewers. If the total volume of complaints have risen and the complaints are about the drop in local and weather news, and no other changes have been made within the television station and its external environment, then the business manager's argument would be strengthened. If this is not the case, the argument would be weakened.