The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
In the above argument, the author predicts that the Northwestern United States will experience an increased demand for heating oil. The author’s argument is based upon the premise that the weather forecast predicted that in upcoming years those regions will be below temperature and people in those regions traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. However, before evaluating the author’s argument three unstated assumptions must be answered.
Firstly, the author argues that most of the people in the northeastern region traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. The author does not provide any justifiable evidence about his prediction of his that in the future they will do so. Maybe in the future, they will stop using oil as their major fuel for heating. Perhaps technological development will introduce highly sophisticated technologies, which can be used more easily for heating. Maybe people will use a newly developed heater instead of oil. There is a possibility that oil will be too expensive to use for heating. Perhaps in the future, the northwestern part of the united will face an economic backslash resulting increasing the oil price. Then, most people may not able to afford oil as their main fuel for heating. If anyone of the above scenarios is true then the author’s argument holds no water.
Secondly, the author argues that in the next five years the people in the northeastern region will experience cold with below temperatures upon the basis of a weather forecast. Weather is an ephemeral entity, which may alter at every moment. There is a possibility that in the recent future people may not experience below the temperature at all. There is a possibility that due to global warming the average temperature of the earth may increase in the next five years. Then people may not have to use oil as their main fuel for heating. Even if it is not the case, making a prediction about the next five years based on a single weather forecast is dubious to some degree. Maybe a recent technological development may help to gain some how systematic statistical data, which may help to predict the weather conditions more correctly. In that case, the weather forecast may alter. If any one of the above conditions is true, then the author’s argument is built unreliably.
Thirdly, since a recent population growth led to the construction of many new buildings in that area, the author argues that people in that building still want to follow the old traditional ways of heating. Maybe people will not prefer the method. Maybe the new homes will be installed with new technology that can be easily used as a heater without oil. Then, people may not have the penchant for using old techniques. Maybe a recent environmental survey release a statement about the pollution caused by the heater. Then people may not be want to use the old ways of using oil as the main fuel for heating. Maybe in the future people will be more predilected to switch to the electric powered heater. If any one of the above scenarios is true then the author’s argument is seriously unwarranted.
In the conclusion, the argument as it stands now is considerably flawed due to its reliance on several unwarranted assumptions. If the author is able to answer the three questions above and offer more evidence(perhaps in the form of a systematic research study), then it will be possible to fully evaluate the viability of the proposed argument that during the next five years the region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 11 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 6 2
No. of Sentences: 31 15
No. of Words: 604 350
No. of Characters: 2924 1500
No. of Different Words: 221 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.957 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.841 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.689 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 201 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 135 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 100 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 67 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 19.484 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 9.758 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.613 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.322 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.47 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.075 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 399, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...osal without having any second thought. If any one of the above scenarios holds tr...
^^
Line 5, column 418, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...m the data available based on the past. If the above scenario is true then the aut...
^^
Line 7, column 497, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...lying the recyclable household garages. If anyone of the above scenarios come is t...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, first, firstly, however, if, may, second, secondly, so, then, therefore, third, thirdly
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 10.0 19.6327345309 51% => More to be verbs wanted.
Auxiliary verbs: 13.0 12.9520958084 100% => OK
Conjunction : 5.0 11.1786427146 45% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 12.0 13.6137724551 88% => OK
Pronoun: 28.0 28.8173652695 97% => OK
Preposition: 50.0 55.5748502994 90% => OK
Nominalization: 13.0 16.3942115768 79% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2029.0 2260.96107784 90% => OK
No of words: 388.0 441.139720559 88% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.2293814433 5.12650576532 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.43821085614 4.56307096286 97% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.81289727181 2.78398813304 101% => OK
Unique words: 194.0 204.123752495 95% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.5 0.468620217663 107% => OK
syllable_count: 627.3 705.55239521 89% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 2.0 4.96107784431 40% => OK
Article: 5.0 8.76447105788 57% => OK
Subordination: 6.0 2.70958083832 221% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 18.0 19.7664670659 91% => OK
Sentence length: 21.0 22.8473053892 92% => OK
Sentence length SD: 54.3014278056 57.8364921388 94% => OK
Chars per sentence: 112.722222222 119.503703932 94% => OK
Words per sentence: 21.5555555556 23.324526521 92% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.16666666667 5.70786347227 91% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 3.0 5.25449101796 57% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 3.0 8.20758483034 37% => More positive sentences wanted.
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.88822355289 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 7.0 4.67664670659 150% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.131813577166 0.218282227539 60% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0396992903533 0.0743258471296 53% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.04361054172 0.0701772020484 62% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0729927023834 0.128457276422 57% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0371475049161 0.0628817314937 59% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 14.0 14.3799401198 97% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 50.16 48.3550499002 104% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.5 12.197005988 94% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.05 12.5979740519 104% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.34 8.32208582834 100% => OK
difficult_words: 90.0 98.500998004 91% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 12.0 12.3882235529 97% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.4 11.1389221557 93% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.