The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
“Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.”
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions, and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The investment firm recommends its clients to invest in Consolidated Industries because of the predicted demand for heating oil. However, to make the claim more convincing, several assumptions in the argument need supports.
The author suggests that climate forecasters believe the cold weather will continue for several more years. An assumption here is that the forecasters and their weather forecast is reliable. However, the author did not provide the background of the forecasters. They could be forecasters who just graduated from college or they may even still attending their universities. If the forecasters are experts who have done lots of research, the weather forecast may be reliable. We must know that whether they have the ability to predict the weather for such long period of time.
Even if the climate does get colder in the future, the demand for heating oil may not rise as predicted. The author assumes that the residents in the northeastern United States will continue using the conventional heating system. Still, the residents may change their heating method to other kinds of heating system, such as electrical heating systems. With the presence of the electrical heating systems, the demand for heating oil may decrease instead of increasing.
The author mentions that many new homes are being constructed in the northeastern region. Nevertheless, it might be possible that the new homes will not have new residents since the recent population growth may be ephemeral. The investment firm may predict the growth too optimistic. If economic recession occurs in the northeastern area, people will not want to move into the area, and the original residents may also move out from there, which results in the decrease in the demand for heating oil.
Even if demand for heating oil does increase in the future, the ability of profiting of Consolidate Industries may not rise as assumed. An assumption here is that Consolidate Industries is the only company selling heating oils. However, the author does not provide the background of the competition within heating oil market. If there are other companies which sell the same heating oil at lower prices, the residents might purchase the oil from them; consequently, the profit of Consolidate Industries will not increase.
In conclusion, to strengthen the argument, the author would need to address the assumptions presented above.
- College and university education should be free for all students fully financed by the government 58
- The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client Homes in the northeastern United States where winters are typically cold have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating Last year that region experienced 9 50
Comments
Essay evaluations by e-grader
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 2, column 560, Rule ID: PERIOD_OF_TIME[1]
Message: Use simply 'period'.
Suggestion: period
...ty to predict the weather for such long period of time. Even if the climate does get colder ...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, consequently, however, if, may, nevertheless, so, still, then, in conclusion, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 12.0 19.6327345309 61% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 21.0 12.9520958084 162% => OK
Conjunction : 3.0 11.1786427146 27% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 11.0 13.6137724551 81% => OK
Pronoun: 17.0 28.8173652695 59% => OK
Preposition: 38.0 55.5748502994 68% => OK
Nominalization: 9.0 16.3942115768 55% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2034.0 2260.96107784 90% => OK
No of words: 383.0 441.139720559 87% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.31070496084 5.12650576532 104% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.42384287591 4.56307096286 97% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.79632148759 2.78398813304 100% => OK
Unique words: 175.0 204.123752495 86% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.456919060052 0.468620217663 98% => OK
syllable_count: 615.6 705.55239521 87% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 17.0 8.76447105788 194% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 4.0 4.22255489022 95% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 21.0 19.7664670659 106% => OK
Sentence length: 18.0 22.8473053892 79% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 35.6492741623 57.8364921388 62% => OK
Chars per sentence: 96.8571428571 119.503703932 81% => OK
Words per sentence: 18.2380952381 23.324526521 78% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.33333333333 5.70786347227 76% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 1.0 5.25449101796 19% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 7.0 8.20758483034 85% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.88822355289 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 9.0 4.67664670659 192% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.219363900269 0.218282227539 100% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0710889521723 0.0743258471296 96% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0474053410506 0.0701772020484 68% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.107806763608 0.128457276422 84% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0561921149606 0.0628817314937 89% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.7 14.3799401198 88% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 53.21 48.3550499002 110% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.3 12.197005988 84% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.52 12.5979740519 107% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.99 8.32208582834 96% => OK
difficult_words: 84.0 98.500998004 85% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 7.0 12.3882235529 57% => Linsear_write_formula is low.
gunning_fog: 9.2 11.1389221557 83% => OK
text_standard: 10.0 11.9071856287 84% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 2, column 560, Rule ID: PERIOD_OF_TIME[1]
Message: Use simply 'period'.
Suggestion: period
...ty to predict the weather for such long period of time. Even if the climate does get colder ...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, consequently, however, if, may, nevertheless, so, still, then, in conclusion, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 12.0 19.6327345309 61% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 21.0 12.9520958084 162% => OK
Conjunction : 3.0 11.1786427146 27% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 11.0 13.6137724551 81% => OK
Pronoun: 17.0 28.8173652695 59% => OK
Preposition: 38.0 55.5748502994 68% => OK
Nominalization: 9.0 16.3942115768 55% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2034.0 2260.96107784 90% => OK
No of words: 383.0 441.139720559 87% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.31070496084 5.12650576532 104% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.42384287591 4.56307096286 97% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.79632148759 2.78398813304 100% => OK
Unique words: 175.0 204.123752495 86% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.456919060052 0.468620217663 98% => OK
syllable_count: 615.6 705.55239521 87% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 17.0 8.76447105788 194% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 4.0 4.22255489022 95% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 21.0 19.7664670659 106% => OK
Sentence length: 18.0 22.8473053892 79% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 35.6492741623 57.8364921388 62% => OK
Chars per sentence: 96.8571428571 119.503703932 81% => OK
Words per sentence: 18.2380952381 23.324526521 78% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.33333333333 5.70786347227 76% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 1.0 5.25449101796 19% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 7.0 8.20758483034 85% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.88822355289 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 9.0 4.67664670659 192% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.219363900269 0.218282227539 100% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0710889521723 0.0743258471296 96% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0474053410506 0.0701772020484 68% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.107806763608 0.128457276422 84% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0561921149606 0.0628817314937 89% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.7 14.3799401198 88% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 53.21 48.3550499002 110% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.3 12.197005988 84% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.52 12.5979740519 107% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.99 8.32208582834 96% => OK
difficult_words: 84.0 98.500998004 85% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 7.0 12.3882235529 57% => Linsear_write_formula is low.
gunning_fog: 9.2 11.1389221557 83% => OK
text_standard: 10.0 11.9071856287 84% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.