The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The argument claims that reducing number of rental mopeds during summer seasons will reduce the moped accidents. it further supports the argument by mentioning that such measures have been succesful on neighbouring island. Stated in this way the argument fails to take into account a few factors which could call the conclusion into question. it rests on some assumptions, for which there is no clear evidence. Therefore the argument is unconvincing and falls apart at seams.
Firstly, the argument assumes that increased population during summers is the reason for accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. it does not mention the reason for increase in populations, but its seems that it is due to incoming tourists. Also, it mentions that population increase to 1,00,000. it may be possible that population has increased from 99,900. A mere increase in 100 people is not a strong reason to believe that increase in population is the reason for accidents. A comparative value of population should have been given.
Second, even if we consider that comparatively increase in population is high, that does not mean the accidents are necessarily caused by it. it may be possible that the incoming tourist do not walk on streets or drive a moped; Majority of them might be travelling through tourist buses or cabs. An indicative figure of pedestrian-moped accidents which involve tourists should have been given to make the argument stronger.
Third, it claims to reduce rental mopeds from 50 per day to 25 per day. it is very well possible that accidents involving rental mopeds are very less than accidents involving self owned mopeds. if total number of mopeds on street are in thousands, just reducing 25 rental mopeds would not do much good. A comparative figure of total mopeds on street, total moped-pedestrian accidents per day, and contibution of rental and self owned mopeds in such accidents should have been mentioned.
Finally, a similar action reduced 50% accidents on neighbouring island does not support the argument at all. The reasons for accidents on other island may be population, but what if the reason of accidents on this island are bad roads and not population?
In summary, the argument fails to convince because of the faulty assumptions aforementioned. if the argument had drawn upon examples as suggested, and thereby plugged in the holes in the reasoning, it would have been far sounder on the whole.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 14 15
No. of Words: 397 350
No. of Characters: 1990 1500
No. of Different Words: 183 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.464 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.013 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.785 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 155 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 108 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 84 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 50 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 28.357 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 13.478 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.571 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.385 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.696 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.12 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 6 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 114, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: It
...easons will reduce the moped accidents. it further supports the argument by mentio...
^^
Line 1, column 344, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: It
...ould call the conclusion into question. it rests on some assumptions, for which th...
^^
Line 1, column 412, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Therefore,
..., for which there is no clear evidence. Therefore the argument is unconvincing and falls ...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 134, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: It
...dents involving mopeds and pedestrians. it does not mention the reason for increas...
^^
Line 3, column 301, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: It
...s that population increase to 1,00,000. it may be possible that population has inc...
^^
Line 3, column 484, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...population is the reason for accidents. A comparative value of population should...
^^
Line 7, column 73, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: It
...l mopeds from 50 per day to 25 per day. it is very well possible that accidents in...
^^
Line 7, column 195, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
... accidents involving self owned mopeds. if total number of mopeds on street are in...
^^
Line 11, column 94, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
... the faulty assumptions aforementioned. if the argument had drawn upon examples as...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, finally, first, firstly, if, may, second, so, therefore, third, well, in summary, on the whole
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 21.0 19.6327345309 107% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 11.0 12.9520958084 85% => OK
Conjunction : 10.0 11.1786427146 89% => OK
Relative clauses : 14.0 13.6137724551 103% => OK
Pronoun: 27.0 28.8173652695 94% => OK
Preposition: 48.0 55.5748502994 86% => OK
Nominalization: 21.0 16.3942115768 128% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2049.0 2260.96107784 91% => OK
No of words: 397.0 441.139720559 90% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.16120906801 5.12650576532 101% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.46372701284 4.56307096286 98% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.86344256783 2.78398813304 103% => OK
Unique words: 194.0 204.123752495 95% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.488664987406 0.468620217663 104% => OK
syllable_count: 621.9 705.55239521 88% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 10.0 4.96107784431 202% => Less pronouns wanted as sentence beginning.
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 4.0 1.67365269461 239% => Less conjunction wanted as sentence beginning.
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 22.0 19.7664670659 111% => OK
Sentence length: 18.0 22.8473053892 79% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 34.381789337 57.8364921388 59% => The essay contains lots of sentences with the similar length. More sentence varieties wanted.
Chars per sentence: 93.1363636364 119.503703932 78% => OK
Words per sentence: 18.0454545455 23.324526521 77% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.77272727273 5.70786347227 84% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 9.0 5.25449101796 171% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 6.0 8.20758483034 73% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 13.0 6.88822355289 189% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 3.0 4.67664670659 64% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.236767657253 0.218282227539 108% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0750290697618 0.0743258471296 101% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.064667462315 0.0701772020484 92% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.116520756966 0.128457276422 91% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0652919294373 0.0628817314937 104% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 11.9 14.3799401198 83% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 53.21 48.3550499002 110% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.3 12.197005988 84% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.35 12.5979740519 98% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.79 8.32208582834 94% => OK
difficult_words: 82.0 98.500998004 83% => More difficult words wanted.
linsear_write_formula: 6.5 12.3882235529 52% => Linsear_write_formula is low.
gunning_fog: 9.2 11.1389221557 83% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.