The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The author of the letter has proposed to limit the number of the mopeds rentals on Balmer Island. This argument is based on the occurrence of many accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians during the summer season. While this argument seems convincing on first glance, there are significant underlying flaws that raise doubt about the author’s conclusion.
To state that limiting the moped rental from 50 to 25 per day will reduce the number of accidents is unsubstantial. It is a classic case of number fallacy. It is not stated where such numbers come from. Moreover, if it is to reduce the accidents, one alternative should be to use in another area outside Balmer Island. Or another one is not to rent mopeds . People just use cars to move around or even they go by walking. Also, people may use bus as alternative.
The increasing of the population during the summer does not necessarily mean that everybody makes use of mopeds. However, if someone makes use of them, it is not substantial to say they are going to get involved in accidents. They may rent mopeds and go to another place.
To admit that limiting the number of rentals the town will accomplish such percentage of reduction in accidents by making analogy with another town is not reasonable. It is a classic case of false analogy. There are others reasons which can be applied for Seaville’s town that are not worth in Balmer. Certainly, mopeds in Seaville might be the only way of transportation in the previous year.
For all of the above reasons, the writer of the letter of the Balmer Island Gazette has drawn a dubious conclusion. It may be likely that the limitation of the mopeds rentals will reduce the number of the accidents, but to say it “ cannot help but do so” is certainly fallacious, unless all of the questions raised above are untrue. Therefore, if the author were to provide greater evidences, his argument would be more convincing.
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Sentence: There are others reasons which can be applied for Seaville's town that are not worth in Balmer.
Description: A noun, plural, common is not usually followed by a noun, plural, common
Suggestion: Refer to others and reasons
Sentence: Therefore, if the author were to provide greater evidences, his argument would be more convincing.iption: The fragment if the author is not usually followed by were
Suggestion: Possible agreement error: Replace were with was
Descr
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argument 1 -- OK
argument 2 -- not OK
argument 3 -- OK
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flaws:
No. of Words: 332 350 //Need to arguments in the essay body. For issue essays, around 450 words, for argument essays, around 400 words.
Attribute Value Ideal
Score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 2 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 20 15
No. of Words: 332 350
No. of Characters: 1550 1500
No. of Different Words: 171 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.269 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.669 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.563 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 117 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 71 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 47 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 36 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 16.6 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 7.566 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.35 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.296 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.52 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.078 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5