The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
In the letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client it is recommended to invest in the Consolidated Industries. The reason stated for the recommendation is that in near future there will be high demand of heating oil because of various factors stated in the letter. At surface the reason seems plausible at first glance but under close inspection it is full of assumptions. Strong pieces of evidence are required to justify those assumptions.
To begin with, it has been assumed that there will be no alternative fuel for heating. It is possible that due to high demand for heating, new more refined alternative could be in development process and could replace the heating oil as major source of fuel. It may also be the case that there are more sources for heating are available like heater powered from electricity or heater powered from steam and coal which could hamper the demand of the oil in the near future.If the above cases are true then the argument presented in the letter is significantly hampered.
Secondly, even if we assume that the demand of heating oil will be the same or even more due to the reasons stated. The assumption has been made that Consolidated Industries has only the sole provider of oil in the region. It is possible that there are many industries in the region who are looking at this opportunity to expand their oil business. It may also be the case that another company provide better and refined oil as compared to the Consolidated Industries. So, I would recommend the author of the letter to provide some kind of proof in a systematic manner that Consolidated Industries has a better market share in terms of oil.
Thirdly, the assumption has been made that the weather forecast will be accurate. It is possible that the weather predictors have made a serious mistake in modeling the weather pattern. It may also be the case that as weather pattern are affected markedly even by a small factor the predicted pattern will not hold water. So, if the above cases have merit then the argument presented in the original letter is significantly weakened.
In conclusion, the argument as it stands is considerably flawed because of its reliance on several unstated assumptions. The author may have come to this conclusion based on his relevant understanding of the subject matter but strong pieces of evidences are required to justify the assumptions made in the argument. So, if the author of the passage is able to provide more evidence and justify above-mentioned assumptions in a systematic manner then it will be possible to fully evaluate recommendation of investing in Consolidated Industries.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 19 15
No. of Words: 449 350
No. of Characters: 2170 1500
No. of Different Words: 189 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.603 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.833 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.797 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 161 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 117 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 75 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 47 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 23.632 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 9.847 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.632 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.329 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.563 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.122 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 5, column 473, Rule ID: SENTENCE_WHITESPACE
Message: Add a space between sentences
Suggestion: If
...he demand of the oil in the near future.If the above cases are true then the argum...
^^
Line 5, column 473, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...he demand of the oil in the near future.If the above cases are true then the argum...
^^
Line 9, column 547, Rule ID: IN_A_X_MANNER[1]
Message: Consider replacing "in a systematic manner" with adverb for "systematic"; eg, "in a hasty manner" with "hastily".
...he letter to provide some kind of proof in a systematic manner that Consolidated Industries has a bett...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 13, column 323, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[4]
Message: “So , if” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
... predicted pattern will not hold water. So, if the above cases have merit then the arg...
^^^^^^
Line 17, column 423, Rule ID: IN_A_X_MANNER[1]
Message: Consider replacing "in a systematic manner" with adverb for "systematic"; eg, "in a hasty manner" with "hastily".
...and justify above-mentioned assumptions in a systematic manner then it will be possible to fully evalu...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, if, look, may, second, secondly, so, then, third, thirdly, in conclusion, kind of, to begin with
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 30.0 19.6327345309 153% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 14.0 12.9520958084 108% => OK
Conjunction : 8.0 11.1786427146 72% => OK
Relative clauses : 14.0 13.6137724551 103% => OK
Pronoun: 31.0 28.8173652695 108% => OK
Preposition: 62.0 55.5748502994 112% => OK
Nominalization: 14.0 16.3942115768 85% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2222.0 2260.96107784 98% => OK
No of words: 448.0 441.139720559 102% => OK
Chars per words: 4.95982142857 5.12650576532 97% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.60065326758 4.56307096286 101% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.85906394678 2.78398813304 103% => OK
Unique words: 194.0 204.123752495 95% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.433035714286 0.468620217663 92% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 722.7 705.55239521 102% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 8.0 4.96107784431 161% => OK
Article: 5.0 8.76447105788 57% => OK
Subordination: 4.0 2.70958083832 148% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 4.0 4.22255489022 95% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 19.0 19.7664670659 96% => OK
Sentence length: 23.0 22.8473053892 101% => OK
Sentence length SD: 55.7379603287 57.8364921388 96% => OK
Chars per sentence: 116.947368421 119.503703932 98% => OK
Words per sentence: 23.5789473684 23.324526521 101% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.0 5.70786347227 105% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 5.0 5.25449101796 95% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 8.0 8.20758483034 97% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 7.0 6.88822355289 102% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.186857724171 0.218282227539 86% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0634914105419 0.0743258471296 85% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0747191466199 0.0701772020484 106% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.106925984885 0.128457276422 83% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0683855284658 0.0628817314937 109% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.7 14.3799401198 95% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 48.13 48.3550499002 100% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 12.3 12.197005988 101% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.78 12.5979740519 94% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.98 8.32208582834 96% => OK
difficult_words: 91.0 98.500998004 92% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.0 12.3882235529 65% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.2 11.1389221557 101% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.