The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing. "Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. Due to this demand and the overall increase in clothing prices, we can predict that Sartorian's alpaca overcoats will be more profitable than ever before."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
In the memo, the author concludes that their product, alpaca coats, would be more profitable at present time, after a period of discontinuity, than the last time. This conclusion is based on the reasoning which is riddled with assumptions, and shows myopic view of the author. Questions on the prediction of demand, the quality of new fabric, and the overall profitability should be answered before relying on the conclusion given in the memo.
It is assumed by the author since there was outcry on discontinuity of the product, there would be pent-up demand once the product returns after five years. It should be first checked whether it is necessarily the case. It could happen that alpaca coats got out of fashion in that period of five years because of their absence, and since the market of clothing is highly contingent on fashion, the product would not live up to the expectation of the company. In the market of clothing, a company should always keep checking the current fashion trends; relying on five years old data is unreasonable.
The reason of the outcry should also be delineated; it should be known whether the outcry was really due to the popularity of product, or the general tendency of people to resist any change. It could be the case where the alpaca coats had become daily necessity, and people hated the break in routine. In such a situation, the comeback of the product would be again a sign of change, and would be met by ignorance. The author, in addition, also makes it vague by not clearly stating the number of people who were involved in the "outcry". If the number is not significant, it would mean that the subsequent assumptions of the author involving the demands are baseless.
The author goes on to describe how the surge in prices of the general clothing would lead to the alpaca overcoats giving good return in the market. This logic is downright trecherous. The source of increment in price could be the rise in price of the raw material itself--which could instead mean that they have to pay more to make the product. It could then happen that the returns actually become smaller than the previous time. Therefore it should be answered by the author whether the new supplier offers the fabric at a reasonable price.
The quality of the new fabric should also be under consideration. It could happen that the previous supplier had esoteric knowledge, and the quality of the fabric couldn't be replicated by anyone else. In such a case, the quality of alpaca coast might be worse than the last time--leading to dip in the demand of the product.
Another subtle point of consideration is the fact that no competitor supplier brought the product in the market once it got discontinued by the company in question. If the alpaca coats were such a profitable business, it should be suprising that the product was not launched by anyone else. Although the reson could be global dearth in the fabric, it could also be that the competitors had predicted a general trend towards the product getting lower in demand, and hadn't deemed it to be worth a consideration. It should, thus, be exactly known the reason why the product wasn't launched by anyone else.
Answering all the above points ranging from the inexact estimate of previous demand, the economical and quality issues of the new fabric, to the fashion trends among the public could save the company from the negative consequences made from the the fallacious reasoning present in the memo.
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Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 222, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Three successive sentences begin with the same word. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
...ked whether it is necessarily the case. It could happen that alpaca coats got out ...
^^
Line 7, column 433, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Therefore,
... become smaller than the previous time. Therefore it should be answered by the author whe...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 9, column 165, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: couldn't
...nowledge, and the quality of the fabric couldnt be replicated by anyone else. In such a...
^^^^^^^
Line 11, column 466, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: hadn't
...he product getting lower in demand, and hadnt deemed it to be worth a consideration. ...
^^^^^
Line 11, column 572, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: wasn't
...xactly known the reason why the product wasnt launched by anyone else. Answering ...
^^^^^
Line 13, column 243, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a word
Suggestion: the
...rom the negative consequences made from the the fallacious reasoning present in the mem...
^^^^^^^
Line 13, column 243, Rule ID: DT_DT[1]
Message: Maybe you need to remove one determiner so that only 'the' or 'the' is left.
Suggestion: the; the
...rom the negative consequences made from the the fallacious reasoning present in the mem...
^^^^^^^
Discourse Markers used:
['actually', 'also', 'first', 'if', 'really', 'so', 'then', 'therefore', 'thus', 'in addition']
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance in Part of Speech:
Nouns: 0.233785822021 0.25644967241 91% => OK
Verbs: 0.143288084465 0.15541462614 92% => OK
Adjectives: 0.0739064856712 0.0836205057962 88% => OK
Adverbs: 0.0392156862745 0.0520304965353 75% => OK
Pronouns: 0.0301659125189 0.0272364105082 111% => OK
Prepositions: 0.150829562594 0.125424944231 120% => OK
Participles: 0.0467571644042 0.0416121511921 112% => OK
Conjunctions: 2.6846251968 2.79052419416 96% => OK
Infinitives: 0.0150829562594 0.026700313972 56% => OK
Particles: 0.0 0.001811407834 0% => OK
Determiners: 0.149321266968 0.113004496875 132% => OK
Modal_auxiliary: 0.0392156862745 0.0255425247493 154% => OK
WH_determiners: 0.00904977375566 0.0127820249294 71% => OK
Vocabulary words and sentences:
No of characters: 3509.0 2731.13054187 128% => OK
No of words: 598.0 446.07635468 134% => OK
Chars per words: 5.86789297659 6.12365571057 96% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.94510247834 4.57801047555 108% => OK
words length more than 5 chars: 0.364548494983 0.378187486979 96% => OK
words length more than 6 chars: 0.249163879599 0.287650121315 87% => OK
words length more than 7 chars: 0.14381270903 0.208842608468 69% => OK
words length more than 8 chars: 0.0903010033445 0.135150697306 67% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.6846251968 2.79052419416 96% => OK
Unique words: 255.0 207.018472906 123% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.426421404682 0.469332199767 91% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
Word variations: 51.0905944221 52.1807786196 98% => OK
How many sentences: 25.0 20.039408867 125% => OK
Sentence length: 23.92 23.2022227129 103% => OK
Sentence length SD: 55.065836959 57.7814097925 95% => OK
Chars per sentence: 140.36 141.986410481 99% => OK
Words per sentence: 23.92 23.2022227129 103% => OK
Discourse Markers: 0.4 0.724660767414 55% => OK
Paragraphs: 7.0 5.14285714286 136% => OK
Language errors: 7.0 3.58251231527 195% => Correct essay format wanted or double check grammar & spelling issues after essay writing.
Readability: 48.8363879599 51.9672348444 94% => OK
Elegance: 2.02836879433 1.8405768891 110% => OK
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.35116444542 0.441005458295 80% => OK
Sentence sentence coherence: 0.141963935111 0.135418324435 105% => OK
Sentence sentence coherence SD: 0.0778146845466 0.0829849096947 94% => OK
Sentence paragraph coherence: 0.673621991454 0.58762219726 115% => OK
Sentence paragraph coherence SD: 0.161946555117 0.147661913831 110% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.178920294033 0.193483328276 92% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0780763533873 0.0970749176394 80% => OK
Paragraph paragraph coherence: 0.607551922648 0.42659136922 142% => OK
Paragraph paragraph coherence SD: 0.0695899626233 0.0774707102158 90% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.274673793854 0.312017818177 88% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0383153485782 0.0698173142475 55% => The ideas may be duplicated in paragraphs.
Task Achievement:
Sentences with positive sentiment : 4.0 8.33743842365 48% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 12.0 6.87684729064 174% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 9.0 4.82512315271 187% => Less neutral sentences wanted.
Positive topic words: 4.0 6.46551724138 62% => OK
Negative topic words: 12.0 5.36822660099 224% => OK
Neutral topic words: 6.0 2.82389162562 212% => OK
Total topic words: 22.0 14.657635468 150% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
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Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6 -- The score is based on the average performance of 20,000 argument essays. This e-grader is not smart enough to check on arguments.
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Note: This is not the final score. The e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.