Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
The referenced article takes note of current positions in context of the demand for heating oil, and based on present standings,comes to conclusions that suggest a probable increase in the demands of the same. The article makes a number of explicit as well as implicit assumptions, all of which are crucial to analyze the argument in its entirety. As such, it is appropriate to enumerate and afterwards scrutinize them:
• Decreased average temperature rates and increments in the number of residencies in Northeastern United States will necessarily lead to an increase in heating oil demands. This statement is inferred from the existence of the tradition of using oil as fuel for heating.
• The decreased temperatures will incentivize the demographic to solely rely on oil as a heating fuel. Closely related to this implicit assumption is that the new residencies will also follow the established trends and resort to oil for heating their homes.
• Consolidated Industries are likely to continue their trend of having their major business operation as the retail sale of home heating oil and are unlikely to pursue other novel businesses.
Now that we have dealt adequately with the nuances of the article, we may now critique the assumptions and search their subtleties for potential errors/ misconstructions.
Firstly, as assumption one and two are inter-related, we shall consider them a single unit. These two assumptions, although likely to be correct for the statistics are in their favour, are not correct necessarily. It may very much be the case that the social paradigms are transformed and the residents of the states in question are able to utilize more efficient and effective means of home heating , and as a consequence, decrease the extent of their reliance on heating oil, which would drastically reduce the demand of such. Similarly, the future residents of these regions may also adopt the more efficient means of heating and further reduce the demand of heating oil.
The third assumption also commits a fallacy similar to that committed in the first two assumptions- it implies that current trends are to remained unchanged in the coming future. It doesn’t account for the possibility of consolidated industries resorting to other operational mechanisms and discontinue that which is in vogue. One may expect that such industries might observe the effects of the inferences drawn in the preceding paragraph and as such deviate from their normal modus operandi.
Thus, as is evident, the fundamental issue with the article is perhaps its overly idealistic and optimistic perception of the affairs of the future and due to this, fails to account for all possibilities that may not be very favorable to its current standings. However, at the same time, one must state that the assumptions made by the article aren’t entirely quixotic. They definitely possess measurable logical grounding and hence, might come out to be true. But as it stands, the article does not succeed in fully contrasting the differing perspectives of the matter at hand.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
flaws:
1. the introduction is too long
2. this argument is not exactly correct:
The third assumption also commits a fallacy similar to that committed in the first two assumptions- it implies that current trends are to remained unchanged in the coming future. It doesn’t account for the possibility of consolidated industries resorting to other operational mechanisms and discontinue that which is in vogue. One may expect that such industries might observe the effects of the inferences drawn in the preceding paragraph and as such deviate from their normal modus operandi.
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Those are the three arguments:
argument 1:
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.
argument 2:
Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth.
argument 3:
Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 19 15
No. of Words: 496 350
No. of Characters: 2515 1500
No. of Different Words: 247 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.719 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.071 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.887 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 187 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 152 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 100 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 78 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 26.105 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 10.052 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.632 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.296 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.487 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.097 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 4 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 128, Rule ID: COMMA_PARENTHESIS_WHITESPACE
Message: Put a space after the comma
Suggestion: , comes
...ting oil, and based on present standings,comes to conclusions that suggest a probable ...
^^^^^^
Line 8, column 256, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...e states in question are able to utilize more efficient and effective means of ho...
^^
Line 8, column 308, Rule ID: COMMA_PARENTHESIS_WHITESPACE
Message: Put a space after the comma, but not before the comma
Suggestion: ,
...ient and effective means of home heating , and as a consequence, decrease the exte...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, firstly, hence, however, if, may, similarly, so, third, thus, well, as well as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 19.0 19.6327345309 97% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 13.0 12.9520958084 100% => OK
Conjunction : 17.0 11.1786427146 152% => OK
Relative clauses : 13.0 13.6137724551 95% => OK
Pronoun: 36.0 28.8173652695 125% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 65.0 55.5748502994 117% => OK
Nominalization: 12.0 16.3942115768 73% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2601.0 2260.96107784 115% => OK
No of words: 496.0 441.139720559 112% => OK
Chars per words: 5.2439516129 5.12650576532 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.71922212354 4.56307096286 103% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.99684528479 2.78398813304 108% => OK
Unique words: 252.0 204.123752495 123% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.508064516129 0.468620217663 108% => OK
syllable_count: 824.4 705.55239521 117% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 8.0 4.96107784431 161% => OK
Article: 6.0 8.76447105788 68% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 19.0 19.7664670659 96% => OK
Sentence length: 26.0 22.8473053892 114% => OK
Sentence length SD: 60.1983333256 57.8364921388 104% => OK
Chars per sentence: 136.894736842 119.503703932 115% => OK
Words per sentence: 26.1052631579 23.324526521 112% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.05263157895 5.70786347227 89% => OK
Paragraphs: 10.0 5.15768463074 194% => Less paragraphs wanted.
Language errors: 3.0 5.25449101796 57% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 2.0 6.88822355289 29% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 8.0 4.67664670659 171% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.190002381467 0.218282227539 87% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.058103190693 0.0743258471296 78% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0532252666531 0.0701772020484 76% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.080158192858 0.128457276422 62% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0598606387194 0.0628817314937 95% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 16.3 14.3799401198 113% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 36.63 48.3550499002 76% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 14.6 12.197005988 120% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.41 12.5979740519 106% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 9.54 8.32208582834 115% => OK
difficult_words: 145.0 98.500998004 147% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 14.5 12.3882235529 117% => OK
gunning_fog: 12.4 11.1389221557 111% => OK
text_standard: 15.0 11.9071856287 126% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Maximum six paragraphs wanted.
Rates: 83.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 5.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.