The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette."On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involv

The author's recommendation that by limiting the moped's rented by rental companies on the Balmer islands from 50 to 25 per day, the accident rate will decrease by 50 percent in summer months, may seem logical at first glance. The author's assumptions might be correct if the premises on which they are based on, were to be true. However, the author has made certain assumptions in reaching his conclusions. Some important questions arise from these assumptions, which need to be answered clearly,if the recommendation is to give the predicted result.

The author has stated that the population of Balmer island increases in summer months. Since mopeds are the main form of transport, there are more moped accidents in summer months. The author has propsed that a reduction in the number of moped rentals from 50 to 25 per day in summer months will bring down the accident rate by 50 percent. His conclusion is based on the fact that a similar reduction in moped accidents was achieved last year in the neighbouring island of Seaville, by applying the same control measure. However, the author has not answered some pertinent questions while proposing the solution. First question that arises is,does the island of Seaville has the same population increase in the summer months and like Balmer island, does the island of Seaville also has mopeds as the popular form of transport? The author has stated that by limiting moped rentals a reduction in moped accidents was achieved on island of Seaville during summer months. However,if the demographic statistics of Balmer and Seaville were to differ significantly in summer months,the same effect might not be achieved in Balmer. Suppose, as opposed to Balmer, large number of people from Seaville might be going to mainland for summers. In this case, the number of moped accidents will automatically come down as there will be less number of drivers and pedestrians. The author has failed to state, whther the moped is the popular form of transport in Seaville or not. In Seaville, due to geographical or other reasons, some other means of transport like dirt bikes, cars etc may have gained popularity over the last year. So a reducation in number of moped users might have brought down the accident rate and the reduction of rentals may not have played such a significant role in the same.

The author has not given any information regarding the number of rented mopeds invlved in accidents on the Balmer island. Since,moped is the popular form of transport on Balmer,it is natural to assume that many residents of the island may be owning mopeds. The author has given a figure that the population of Balmer becomes 100,00 in summers, but he hasn't stated the percentage increae in population. So if we are to assume that most of the visitors rent mopeds for transport, there is no evidence to suggest that there is a large percentage of increase in moped rentals during summers. The author has not given any particular evidence to connect the accidents with rented mopeds. So, if a majority of population owns mopeds in Balmer, a decrease in rentals will not have much effect on number of accidents.

Summing up,the author may be right in claiming that, "By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents. "However based on this article, his conclusion depends on some unstated assumptions. Some pertinent questions arise due to these assumptions, which have not been answered in this article. Unless the author explicitly answeres the questions pointed out in the above paragraphs, his recommendations will not have the predicted effects.