"The Cumquat Cafe began advertising on our local radio station this year and was delighted to see its business increase by 10 percent over last year’s totals. Their success shows you how you can use radio advertising to make your business more profitabl

The author of the argument has failed that using local radio advertising will make a business more profitable. The argument, as it stands, is based on questionable assumptions and a faulty line of reasoning, a fact which renders it over-simplistic and unconvincing.

First of all, the author assumes that it was the local radio advertisement and not some other mean of advertisement that led to the "success" of Cumquat cafe. What if the cafe provided better food or a new menu, better service or resorted to a renovation and new chefs? In addition, the ten percent increase may have been the result of some other economic variables, unknown to us, that led to an improvement of the whole economy, for example lower import rates of coffee or an income increase of the locals. The author should have provided a more direct link between advertising and "success" by providing proof, for example a survey, that the ten percent increase was due to an increase of customers who were regular listeners of the local radio and therefore were influenced by the radio advertisements.

Next, the argument implies that the demographics of the radio listeners coincide with the cafe's customers and habitues, and assumes that the radio station has a significant reputation and a pool of listeners that is able to affect the profitability of a business. However, the author does not back up his thesis with any relevant information such as the advertising time, an estimation of radio listeners or a confirmation that the advertisements were heard by listeners at all. How long did the Cumquat cafe advertisement campaign last? What time were the advertisements broadcasted? It is not the same to broadcast advertisements early in the morning and late in the night. The author should have backed up the aforementioned points.

Finally, the arguer concludes that what is true for the Cumquat cafe will likewise be true for most other businesses. However, there is no background to base this assumption. What if the local radio station specializes in topics such as cafeterias and night life, so that the target group of advertisements is mainly concerned with entertainment? This may exclude business of other types, rendering advertisement in this radio station suitable only for the aforementioned type of business. We cannot safely assume that because a small cafeteria has benefited from radio advertising, every other local businesses will benefit at all.

To conclude, based on unsubstantiated assumptions and poor evidence, the author's reasoning does not provide concrete support for his/her conclusion. If the argument had included the items discussed above, it would have been more thorough and convincing.