The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a company that builds shopping malls around the country."The surface of a section of Route 101, paved just two years ago by Good Intentions Roadways, is now badly cracked with a number of dangero

The Vice President of the company responsible for building shopping malls, proposes to hire Appian Roadways replacing the currently existing Good Intentions Roadways, on the basis that it will increase the durability of the roads. He arrives at his conclusion on the assumption that, the same effects observed in the other part of the state, will be observed in his part too. However, the argument is rife with unstated assumptions and a number of questions need to be answered before arriving at a conclusion regarding the proposal of the vice president.

First of all, was Good Intentions Roadways solely responsible for paving the surface of a section of Route101? If some of the other companies too colloborated with Good Intentions Roadways, then it cannot be blamed for the undesirable result. Also, did the travellers through the roadways, adhere to the speed limits and load limits to be carried by the vehicles? If the loads have exceeded the prescribed limits by the Good Intentions Roadways, then the Roadways is not to blame for the potholes created.

Secondly, the president happens to compare the section of Route40 with Route101. Are these two sections comparable? Do they have the same size? The sections must be similar in a number of aspects, for them to be taken for comparison. Only if these factors are alike, we can gauge the effectiveness of roadways. If the traffic in Appian Roadways has been very much less, during the past four years, then we cannot arrive at the strength of the Roadways. What if Good Intentions Roadways stretches for a longer distance than Appian Roadways? Then the comparison will be futile because it will not be comparing 'apples with apples'.

Purchasing of a state-of-the-art paving machinery and hiring of a new manager, does not guarantee the effectiveness of Appian Roadways. Does the replacing new manager, have the same skill sets to drive employees and get the work done, as that of the previous employees? Will the newly purchased machinery be able to give the same positive results, as that of the old machinery? When the machinery has not been still put to use and as the manager is newly take charge, we cannot foresee the consequences and future of Appian Roadways. Hence these questions must be answered by the Vice President in order to predict the future of Appian Roadways.

Additionally, will Appian Roadways be able to construct access roads for all of the new shopping malls? Does it have that sort of man power to carry out such an onerous task? Because the roads constructed by Appian Roadways were safe elsewhere, how guaranteed is that the roads constructed newly will serve for four years or more? Proper extrapolation has to be done after comparing the previously carried out construction work, and the work that is about to begin. The Vice President commits the flaw of analogy and it has to be given due attention. The durability of the roads depend on a number of other factors like climatic conditions, the nature of surrounding soil, the traffic load and the number of vehicles encountered per day and their type etc... The contribution of these factors must be quantified, and weighed against the constructed Appian Roadways, to measure its durability.

Thus, the argument put forward by the Vice President, needs to address a number of questions including: the road conditions prevalent in Good Intentions and Appian Roadways, the similarities between Route 40 and Route101, effect of the new machinery and manage on the Appian Roadways, employee count of Appian Roadways. Answers to these questions will serve to strengthen the Vice President's argument, and make it a suitable candidate for implementation.