"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the

The author of this argument suggests that the town council of Balmer Island should limit the moped renting in order to reduce the number of accident and attain half of annual reduction in moped accident. To support his claim, the author provide Seavile Island as an example. This advice looks convincing as first glance, however, there are still some problems exist.

First of all, the assumption that controlling the number of mopeds rented by the rental companies can reduce the number of accident looks invalid. Actually, the accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians can be caused by plenty of reasons. Too many mopeds could be one, while too many people can also lead to the accident. During summer month, there is a huge population in this island and it is very likely that the accidents caused by careless pedestrians who did not follow the traffic roles. Furthermore, even the mopeds are the key reason to cause accidents, it does not imply that limiting the mopeds rented by rental companies is a good way to control the mopeds number. Mopeds rented by companies might be account for a small percent of mopeds. Since it is a popular form of transportation, citizens may own moped themselves and do not need to rent them. Therefore, the rental companies could just meet the demands of small percent of the visitors and the limitation will not affect the total number of moped in the island.

Besides, the author’s assumption that the achievement got in neighboring island will certainly working in Balmer is incredible. Seaville is a neighbor island, but the condition of two islands can be completely different. Seaville Island many not have people as many as Balmer does. Also, the annual in moped accidents can be vary between two islands. If Seaville do not have much annual in moped accident, it is very easy for them to reduce half of it through any possible functions. Therefore, it is too rash to conclude that Balmer can directly adopt Seaville’s policy and have the same outcome.

Even two islands are very similar, it is still too early to state that Balmer can use this way to decline the annual. Because the author’s assumption that this policy achieved last year will keep working. Obviously, there is no evidence support this guessing. One year’s succeed can caused by coincident and may not be replicated in other situation. For example, if last summer typhoon hit the Seaville Island, the visitors might decreased significantly, so that the number of moped accidents and the annual spent in there both reduced. To support the argument, the author should provide evidence directly prove that the key reason to cause accidents is too many mopeds on the road. Besides, to use Seaville Island as a supporting evidence, the author should give detail description about the similarity of those two islands and a long-term achievement Seaville Island got in reducing annual.

To sum up, the suggestion that controlling the mopeds rented by rental companies can efficiently reduce the mopeds pedestrian accidents and cut down the annual is invalid. The assumptions given by the author is not persuadable. To strengthen this argument, the author should answer the questions listed above and provide more detail to supporting his idea.