The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station To reverse a decline in listener numbers our owners have decided that WWAC must change from its current rock music format The decline has occurred despite population growth in o

The manager of WWAC radio station recommends that in order to increase the popularity of the station, they should change their format form music to news and talk. The manager uses two evidences: 1) there is decline in the number of listeners in listening area despite population increase 2) a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music suggesting limited interest in music. Although the evidence appears to bolster the argument, a meticulous analysis will show that certain evidence needs to be provided to justify its validity.

Firstly, the manager, to support his recommendation, uses the premise that despite increase in population, number of listeners decreases. However, the manager needs to provide figures regarding the decline. For instance, what was the population before and now? Is it a 1% decline or 99% decline? What segment of the population listens to the station? We need the figures because the manager may be exaggerating the true extent of the problem. It could be true that the decline is actually insignificant or that there is seasonal trend leading to small decline during the summer months when many people leave the city. If the evidence shows that the decline is not significant it likely to weaken the claim that station has to take some measures to reverse the decline in the listener numbers. Alternately, if the evidence shows that there is significant decline then it would strengthen the claim. (Moreover, the manager proposes, to reverse this decline, station must change its current rock-music format. However, there is no mention that new population who listens to the radio does enjoy rock-music format.)

Secondly, the manager further reports that continuing decline in local sales of the recorded music suggests limited interest in music. The manager uses this premise to support the recommendation. However, we need strong evidence to evaluate the claim. We need the evidence concerning number local stores and cost of the recorded music. If there are only limited stores in the area the new retired population may not prefer to travel to distant stores to get recorded music. Hence, the evidence that there are shops all over the area would strengthen the claim that people have lost their in music. Alternately, the evidence that shops are scarce would tend to weaken the claim. Another important factor is the cost of recorded music. If there was an increase in the cost of recorded music, then people might have gradually stopped buying it, and this doesn’t mean that they are not interested in music. People can enjoy music without buying it, for example, they can download it or can get it from friends in mobile. The manager could support his claim by conducting a research on what listeners want.

Thirdly, the manager’s claim that station should change its format to a news and talk to increase the audience is sadly misguided. We need to know how many of the listeners would be happy with the change. Why the other listeners are not listening to the station? If it is because they do not like the music format of the station, then it will strengthen the claim that the change in the format would add listeners to the station. If the current listeners are enjoying the rock-music format and if they say that it is likely that would not be happy with the change; the evidence would tend to weaken the claim. The manager needs to conduct a survey regarding the number of current listeners and future listeners. If survey shows that future listeners will be lesser in number than current ones, then there will be greater decline in the future if proposed format change implemented. Such evidence would tend to weaken the claim. In addition, the manager should also have considered the impact of other station in the area. Have they witnessed a decline? Has the listener numbers of news and talk formatted radio stations increased? The manager needs to answer these questions and to use the affirmative answers as evidence for his recommendation.

Lastly, besides showing that area has experienced the new retire population influx, the manager implicit that they are the new listeners of WWAC radio station. However, this implication could be unbelievable. Although, they have come to live in the area, there is no information that they would like to listen to the station and thus could be the potential listeners of the station. It is more likely that those people in their sixties and seventies could not hear clearly. As a result, they may prefer watching TV and going outside in their free time and care nothing about the radio program. Under that condition, even though WWAC switched their format, they are less likely to attract more listeners. If specific information shows that, in fact, few of these new residents prefer to listen to the radio, the argument is more likely to be weakened.