The following appeared in a health magazine."The citizens of Forsythe have adopted more healthful lifestyles. Their responses to a recent survey show that in their eating habits they conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations than they

The author of the argument asserts that dwellers of Forsythe have started to lead more healthy life-style. Although the conclusion is supported by some evidences such as statistical data about sales of sulia and kiran and results of a recent survey, these evidences should be scrutinized carefully in order to evaluate the soundness of the author's conclusion.

First of all, we were told that a recent survey has demonstrated that residents of the area have adopted eating habits which match government's recommendations closer than it was ten years ago. Although this statement, at first, seems to be convincing, the assertion is equivocal due to the fact that we are not given either initial data about survey, which was carried out ten years ago, nor the results of the recent survey. Therefore, the probability exists that, for instance, ten years ago only 1 per cent of surveyed people followed the recommendations; in this case even 2 per cent of citizens who were interviewed will be twice as much as it used to be. Consequently, we need to have access to the information about both surveys in order to be able to interpret them correctly.

Furthermore, the author avers that sales of products which contain kiran have increased four times. Although this statement sounds strikingly and gives us perception that the change is significant, in reality we need to know about initial size of sales. This knowledge will give us an opportunity to evenhandedly estimate the size of the change; Without knowing this information we may surmise that, for example, the possibility exists that initial volume of sales were insignificant in this case, the four-time increase will not be impressive. Moreover, the mere increase of consumption of a certain product may not lead to a healthier life-style, if inhabitants of the city will keep consuming other unhealthy products. In this case, it will be useful to learn about sizes of sales of other products which contain bad fats and preservatives.

The author of the argument tries to answer this question. He or she maintains that sales of products which contain sulia have reduced. However, the impact of sulia on health of citizens is not conspicuous due to the fact that we were given the information only that the healthiest citizens rarely eat it. However, this information says nothing about negative facets of the product. The explanation of the decline in the sales may be that sulia perhaps has a specific taste which will not be attractive for many people or food which contains this chemical is traditional for some group of people. For instance, if people stop buying such vegetable as root, it does not mean that the product is harmful or unhealthy, it may signalize that some Russians who traditionally use it for cooking stop buying it because, for instance, they cannot afford it.

In conclusion, the writer of the argument believes that people who live in Forsythe have adopted healthier life-style. Unfortunately, the information given to us does not manage to create a sound argument due to the fact that this data is insufficient to make a thoughtful analysis of the eating habits of local residents.