The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that
specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold,
have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that
region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate
forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.
Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent
population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region
will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in
order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are
reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to
evaluate the prediction
The following argument says that the demand of the heating oil shall experience an increase in the next upcoming five years since it is the major source of fuel for the heating purposes. Further, the growing population , worsening climates and below-normal temperatures based on the weather forecast are the opther factors that buttress the argument. However there are certain flaws in the argument which I would like to elicit.
Firstly, it is wrong to assume that the heating oil will be the only source of fuel in the upcoming five years. With growing research and the inventions we never know when there might be a better fuel which is more efficient ultimately making heating oil obsolete. Things change and with that the prefernces, one might resort to electricity for heating purposes.
Secondly, assuming based on a single forecast that the weather conditions are bound to remain the same is also questionable. We might require more forecasts and steady reports that the climate is going to worsen thereby increasing the demand of heating oil. And if it reaches a point where even the heating oil wont help then we might have another situation on our hands.
Thirdly, it is wrong to assume that it was the climate responsible for the increase in the sales of oil. There can be some other reason as well which might have led to this increase. We need much more surveys and inquiries regarding how people are using the oil.
Further I totally agree with the fact that population is rising however wiothout any numbers this becomes a vague statement. It is also wrong to assume that even with the exacerbating climate, people will continue to live in the region. They might consider relocating as well.Moreover, there is also a limit to the number of houses which can be built, if it is already at its maximum, we can forget about the increase in sales due to population increase. One can also question the reason for this claim since it is stated that the population just started rising recently and their is no proof that it shall keep rising for the next five years.
Therefore with the constant threat of substitution, lacking numbers and surveys, more stringent weather reports and without a scrutinised survey reagrding the usage of oil, it is not safe to assume that the demand of the oil shall be increase for the next five years.
| Post date | Users | Rates | Link to Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-09 | shekhar | 64 | view |
| 2022-10-01 | raghavchauhan619 | 66 | view |
| 2022-08-11 | avidwriter1771 | 68 | view |
| 2022-08-10 | nihalashah | 59 | view |
| 2022-08-01 | limbutimbu | 67 | view |
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 8 2
No. of Sentences: 17 15
No. of Words: 404 350
No. of Characters: 1904 1500
No. of Different Words: 190 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.483 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.713 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.416 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 132 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 98 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 58 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 30 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 23.765 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 8.882 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.706 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.347 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.347 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.128 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 1 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 219, Rule ID: COMMA_PARENTHESIS_WHITESPACE
Message: Put a space after the comma, but not before the comma
Suggestion: ,
...urposes. Further, the growing population , worsening climates and below-normal tem...
^^
Line 1, column 352, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: However,
...her factors that buttress the argument. However there are certain flaws in the argument...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 19, Rule ID: AGREE_WITH_THE_FACT[1]
Message: Use simply 'agree that'.
Suggestion: agree that
...e are using the oil. Further I totally agree with the fact that population is rising however wiothout a...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 276, Rule ID: SENTENCE_WHITESPACE
Message: Add a space between sentences
Suggestion: Moreover
... They might consider relocating as well.Moreover, there is also a limit to the number of...
^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 575, Rule ID: THEIR_IS[1]
Message: Did you mean 'there'?
Suggestion: there
...lation just started rising recently and their is no proof that it shall keep rising f...
^^^^^
Line 6, column 1, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Therefore,
...l keep rising for the next five years. Therefore with the constant threat of substitutio...
^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, firstly, however, if, moreover, regarding, second, secondly, so, then, therefore, third, thirdly, well
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 23.0 19.6327345309 117% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 17.0 12.9520958084 131% => OK
Conjunction : 9.0 11.1786427146 81% => OK
Relative clauses : 18.0 13.6137724551 132% => OK
Pronoun: 36.0 28.8173652695 125% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 43.0 55.5748502994 77% => OK
Nominalization: 12.0 16.3942115768 73% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1945.0 2260.96107784 86% => OK
No of words: 403.0 441.139720559 91% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 4.82630272953 5.12650576532 94% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.48049772903 4.56307096286 98% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.53154178388 2.78398813304 91% => OK
Unique words: 191.0 204.123752495 94% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.473945409429 0.468620217663 101% => OK
syllable_count: 605.7 705.55239521 86% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 8.0 4.96107784431 161% => OK
Article: 2.0 8.76447105788 23% => OK
Subordination: 1.0 2.70958083832 37% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 17.0 19.7664670659 86% => OK
Sentence length: 23.0 22.8473053892 101% => OK
Sentence length SD: 51.3030887999 57.8364921388 89% => OK
Chars per sentence: 114.411764706 119.503703932 96% => OK
Words per sentence: 23.7058823529 23.324526521 102% => OK
Discourse Markers: 7.05882352941 5.70786347227 124% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 6.0 5.25449101796 114% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 6.0 8.20758483034 73% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 9.0 6.88822355289 131% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 2.0 4.67664670659 43% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.174284100963 0.218282227539 80% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0611250416779 0.0743258471296 82% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0549021801164 0.0701772020484 78% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.102710450376 0.128457276422 80% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0327407266906 0.0628817314937 52% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.2 14.3799401198 92% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 56.59 48.3550499002 117% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.03 12.5979740519 88% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.99 8.32208582834 96% => OK
difficult_words: 82.0 98.500998004 83% => More difficult words wanted.
linsear_write_formula: 10.5 12.3882235529 85% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.2 11.1389221557 101% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.