1. The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
In the letter, it recommends that Consolidated Industries is a good investment, but it leaves some unsubstantiated assumptions.
Firstly, it assumes that the prediction from climate forecasters is right. However, the letter doesn’t mention the background of the forecasters. It’s likely that they’re college students who are interested in doing research in climate cycle, so the prediction may deviate from the reality. Even though they have sufficient knowledge to do the experiment and simulation, it’s still possible they don’t have enough funds to install the more advanced and accurate equipment.
Secondly, the assumption states that there’s no alternative ways or substitutes to satisfy the demand for heating oil. Nevertheless, it’s likely that people can wear more indoor and turn on the heater to raise the temperature. It’s also likely that some cheaper energy resource will be exploited. Therefore, it doesn’t perfectly imply the increased demand for heating oil even though the climate pattern turns out to follow the pattern as the climate forecasters predict.
Lastly, the assumption relies on the premise that the growing population would persist after the houses are being built. However, it’s likely that the growing will gradually stop or even start to decline, so the houses would become vacant. Hence, the existence of the houses may not equivalent to the demand for the heating oil. Last but not least, it assumes that investing in Consolidated Industries is a good choice. Nevertheless, the market is transparent for everyone, so it’s likely that other investment companies or other sensitive investors have also found the trend. Consequently, it stock prices of the company may have already risen by leaps and bounds. As a client decide to buy the stock, it’s possible that he or she may miss the best investing opportunities.
The author must address the above assumptions before jumping to the conclusion that Consolidated Industries is worth investing.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
The argument 1 is wrong.
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 17 15
No. of Words: 314 350
No. of Characters: 1628 1500
No. of Different Words: 170 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.21 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.185 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.807 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 125 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 90 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 58 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 49 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 18.471 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 5.18 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.941 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.304 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.535 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.055 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 7, column 605, Rule ID: IT_VBZ[1]
Message: Did you mean 'stocks'?
Suggestion: stocks
... also found the trend. Consequently, it stock prices of the company may have already ...
^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, consequently, first, firstly, hence, however, lastly, may, nevertheless, second, secondly, so, still, therefore
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 9.0 19.6327345309 46% => More to be verbs wanted.
Auxiliary verbs: 10.0 12.9520958084 77% => OK
Conjunction : 10.0 11.1786427146 89% => OK
Relative clauses : 13.0 13.6137724551 95% => OK
Pronoun: 24.0 28.8173652695 83% => OK
Preposition: 25.0 55.5748502994 45% => More preposition wanted.
Nominalization: 12.0 16.3942115768 73% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1744.0 2260.96107784 77% => OK
No of words: 310.0 441.139720559 70% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.62580645161 5.12650576532 110% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.19604776685 4.56307096286 92% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.04168746637 2.78398813304 109% => OK
Unique words: 172.0 204.123752495 84% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.554838709677 0.468620217663 118% => OK
syllable_count: 531.0 705.55239521 75% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 6.0 8.76447105788 68% => OK
Subordination: 2.0 2.70958083832 74% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 17.0 19.7664670659 86% => OK
Sentence length: 18.0 22.8473053892 79% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 34.9512760211 57.8364921388 60% => OK
Chars per sentence: 102.588235294 119.503703932 86% => OK
Words per sentence: 18.2352941176 23.324526521 78% => OK
Discourse Markers: 7.17647058824 5.70786347227 126% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 1.0 5.25449101796 19% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 3.0 6.88822355289 44% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.11840489551 0.218282227539 54% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.041455155679 0.0743258471296 56% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0396940563045 0.0701772020484 57% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.055638039201 0.128457276422 43% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0408590564823 0.0628817314937 65% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 14.2 14.3799401198 99% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 44.75 48.3550499002 93% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.5 12.197005988 94% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 15.37 12.5979740519 122% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.81 8.32208582834 106% => OK
difficult_words: 84.0 98.500998004 85% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 9.0 12.3882235529 73% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.2 11.1389221557 83% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.