The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. Due to this demand and the overall increase in clothing prices, we can predict that Sartorian's alpaca overcoats will be more profitable than ever before."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The new vice president argues that Sartorian’s alpaca overcoats will be more profitable than ever before using the following assumptions: 1. The outcry from customers five years ago 2. Expectation on pent-up consumer demand 3. Overall increase in clothing prices. Though, the argument may seem cogent at face level, a deeper scrutiny on the assumptions in which the conclusion is base shows that a lot of questions need to be answered to ensure that the show of optimism is not in futility.
First, the vice president’s memo is based on a false premise that expectations five years ago is the same today. This may not be the case, and a proper market research needs to be undertaken. Do customers still look forward to the alpaca overcoat? It is in human nature to seek other means to satisfy their needs and as such, without a market survey to validate whether their customer segments are still in need and high expectation of this clothing line, it will be a poor advice to base profitability on a clothing production line that ended five years ago.
Furthermore, the assertion that no competitor offers a comparable product is unwarranted without empirical data to support that claim. It is hardly impossible that for a clothing line that was very popular five years ago not to have at least a competitor that would have fill the void and needs of such a customer base. Even if this was true five years ago, that may not be the case. Thus, it is imperative that a market survey is conducted to ascertain whether there is currently a competitor and what customers have been using in replacement of the alpaca overcoat.
In addition, the optimism and assumption of a pent-up demand once production commences is unwarranted. Demand is usually proportional to pricing which is dependent on the cost of production. What is currently the cost of producing the overcoat? Is the raw material needed for the production now readily available? Does Sartorian Clothing have alternatives for the supply of the high-quality wool fabric that made it to stop production five years ago. The assumptions are invalid if these questions are not answered.
Finally, the vice president fails to substantiate the reason(s) for the surge in prices. Is the increase in prices as a result of inflation, cost of production, availability of raw material, or increase in demand? How has the increase in prices affect the demands of other clothing for Sartorian and its competitors? Basic economic rules stipulates that an increase in prices usually leads to a decrease in quantity demanded. Though I concede that this is not the case for essential products like water, salt, etc. Is alpaca overcoat an essential product, this may most likely not be the case.
In sum, failure to answer the above questions will lead to a slapdash advice by the vice president on the prospect of high profitability of a clothing line that ended five years ago.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.5 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 3 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 7 2
No. of Sentences: 25 15
No. of Words: 494 350
No. of Characters: 2372 1500
No. of Different Words: 224 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.714 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.802 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.763 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 165 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 126 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 102 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 63 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 19.76 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 11.958 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.56 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.271 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.271 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.048 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 1 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 2, column 467, Rule ID: A_UNCOUNTABLE[3]
Message: Uncountable nouns are usually not used with an indefinite article. Use simply 'poor advice'.
Suggestion: poor advice
...ation of this clothing line, it will be a poor advice to base profitability on a clothing pro...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 6, column 60, Rule ID: A_UNCOUNTABLE[3]
Message: Uncountable nouns are usually not used with an indefinite article. Use simply 'slapdash advice'.
Suggestion: slapdash advice
...answer the above questions will lead to a slapdash advice by the vice president on the prospect o...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
finally, first, furthermore, if, look, may, so, still, thus, at least, in addition, as a result
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 31.0 19.6327345309 158% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 10.0 12.9520958084 77% => OK
Conjunction : 8.0 11.1786427146 72% => OK
Relative clauses : 18.0 13.6137724551 132% => OK
Pronoun: 31.0 28.8173652695 108% => OK
Preposition: 63.0 55.5748502994 113% => OK
Nominalization: 14.0 16.3942115768 85% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2432.0 2260.96107784 108% => OK
No of words: 494.0 441.139720559 112% => OK
Chars per words: 4.92307692308 5.12650576532 96% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.71445763274 4.56307096286 103% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.8394770828 2.78398813304 102% => OK
Unique words: 234.0 204.123752495 115% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.473684210526 0.468620217663 101% => OK
syllable_count: 778.5 705.55239521 110% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 7.0 4.96107784431 141% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 2.0 2.70958083832 74% => OK
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 26.0 19.7664670659 132% => OK
Sentence length: 19.0 22.8473053892 83% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 62.990184264 57.8364921388 109% => OK
Chars per sentence: 93.5384615385 119.503703932 78% => OK
Words per sentence: 19.0 23.324526521 81% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.65384615385 5.70786347227 64% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 12.0 8.20758483034 146% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.88822355289 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 9.0 4.67664670659 192% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.208343782488 0.218282227539 95% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0592194032951 0.0743258471296 80% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.074312325153 0.0701772020484 106% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.122310586323 0.128457276422 95% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0380569057001 0.0628817314937 61% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 11.2 14.3799401198 78% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 52.19 48.3550499002 108% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.7 12.197005988 88% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.26 12.5979740519 89% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.45 8.32208582834 102% => OK
difficult_words: 121.0 98.500998004 123% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.0 12.3882235529 65% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.6 11.1389221557 86% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.