The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava.
"The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The committee extrapolates that Calatrava will have sufficient budget focused for adults in the next decade. They arrived to this conclusion based on the decline in birth rate and several other factors. The author’s proclamation might be true, but there are some loopholes associated with it. So, inorder to determine the credibility of the argument following three points must be substantiated.
First of all, the author assumes that last year birth rate is an indication of the birth rate of coming years. It is possible that last year was an anomaly and there might always have been increase in birth rate execpt the previous year. So, there is more chances that there will be more births in the coming years. Also, the birth rate declined in the city last year due to bad hospital and medical institutions and people prefer to go hospitals of nearby cities where the health facilities are far better. If these are the real cases, then the cogency of the argument is notably hampered.
Secondly, the author assumes that the decrease in birth rate also decreases the students in public school and also people in athletics and recreational facilities. Perhaps there are more immigrants from other cities of the state as well as from other states to the city that might increase the number of students in the local schools. Further, the rate of students who participate in athletics and sports programme as well as enjoy recreational and physical activites programmes might increase drastically so that even there are less total students there might be more number of members in such sectors. The conclusion of the argument does not hold water, if any of these claims are true.
Finally, the author assumes that adult population increases in the town. It might be possible that adult population also decrease commensurately with the decline of birth rate. Moreover, the adults of the city might go to another are for better employment, higher education and also for better lifestle. If this scenario is feasible, then the authenticity of the argument is considerably hindered.
Thus, conclusively, it can be said that the argument has premise that is incomplete and its assumptions are unwarranted and baseless; hence, the conclusion is dubitable. If the author is able to provide evidence to these three explanations in a persuasive nature, then the viability of the argument can be fully evaluated.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 5 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 9 2
No. of Sentences: 19 15
No. of Words: 396 350
No. of Characters: 1964 1500
No. of Different Words: 187 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.461 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.96 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.678 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 135 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 102 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 78 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 47 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 20.842 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 7.815 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.842 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.319 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.319 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.065 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 1 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 2, column 243, Rule ID: THERE_S_MANY[4]
Message: Did you mean 'there are more chances'?
Suggestion: there are more chances
...irth rate execpt the previous year. So, there is more chances that there will be more births in the c...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 58, Rule ID: HAVE_PART_AGREEMENT[1]
Message: Use past participle here: 'premised'.
Suggestion: premised
...y, it can be said that the argument has premise that is incomplete and its assumptions ...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, finally, first, hence, if, moreover, second, secondly, so, then, thus, well, as well as, first of all
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 26.0 19.6327345309 132% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 12.0 12.9520958084 93% => OK
Conjunction : 12.0 11.1786427146 107% => OK
Relative clauses : 13.0 13.6137724551 95% => OK
Pronoun: 22.0 28.8173652695 76% => OK
Preposition: 42.0 55.5748502994 76% => OK
Nominalization: 13.0 16.3942115768 79% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2013.0 2260.96107784 89% => OK
No of words: 396.0 441.139720559 90% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.08333333333 5.12650576532 99% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.46091344257 4.56307096286 98% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.7476639028 2.78398813304 99% => OK
Unique words: 190.0 204.123752495 93% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.479797979798 0.468620217663 102% => OK
syllable_count: 642.6 705.55239521 91% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 4.0 4.96107784431 81% => OK
Article: 10.0 8.76447105788 114% => OK
Subordination: 4.0 2.70958083832 148% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 0.0 4.22255489022 0% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 19.0 19.7664670659 96% => OK
Sentence length: 20.0 22.8473053892 88% => OK
Sentence length SD: 48.2938833495 57.8364921388 84% => OK
Chars per sentence: 105.947368421 119.503703932 89% => OK
Words per sentence: 20.8421052632 23.324526521 89% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.89473684211 5.70786347227 103% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 8.0 8.20758483034 97% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 6.0 6.88822355289 87% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.158439218769 0.218282227539 73% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0457616790014 0.0743258471296 62% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0553770290222 0.0701772020484 79% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.079982639711 0.128457276422 62% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0525617693012 0.0628817314937 84% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.9 14.3799401198 90% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 51.18 48.3550499002 106% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.18 12.5979740519 97% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.3 8.32208582834 100% => OK
difficult_words: 92.0 98.500998004 93% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.5 12.3882235529 69% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.0 11.1389221557 90% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.