The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
Consolidated Industries (ci) is a retail home heating oil company requesting investment for what they believe to be upcoming and increasing business demands. they claim that the number of days of below average weather, the conventional use of heating oil in northeastern homes, and the increased number of homes being built will all contribute significantly to the increase in demand for their product. if demand for ci’s product increases then they will have more customers and require more capital to support the business and whoever invested in them would become more affluent. Whether the demand for home-heating oil will increase or not is a question whose answer depends on the veracity of the claims made.
ci makes the claim that homes in the united states where it is typically cold have used oil as the major source of in-home heating fuel in the past. One thing to consider is that what other options do homes use as their heating sources and what is currently dominating the market. Specific heating options to look for would be electrical heating or wood heating. if oil is not the dominating option that homes use then that casts doubt on the certainty of homes depending on oil as a major source of in-home heating.
Another claim that ci makes is that the northeast region of the united states experienced twenty days of below-average temperatures in the last year and are predicted to experience this for several years to come. While knowing how many days in a year it is cold is useful for someone from ci to gauge engagement with their customers, information which would be more helpful would be the relationship between below-average temperatures and oil sales. if increased oil sales were guaranteed for every below-average temperature day, then the followup question would be how are the number of below-average temperature days changing from year to year. if the number of cold days are increasing from year to year then this would support the claim of an increase in demand in home-heating supplies. if the number of cold days is expected to stay constant through the years then demand should also stay constant from year to year which refutes ci’s claim that demand will increase.
Another claim ci makes is that many new homes were built in the region. In order to understand the impact of these new homes we need to understand how many homes were abandoned or torn down in the same region. we are interested in the net increase of homes in the region because if a 100 homes were built and 100 homes were torn down, then the consumer base did not increase nor decrease. The net increase gives insight into the number of potential or future customers. More important than net increase in home numbers is the type of heating installed into these new homes: will they depend on oil, electricity, or other forms of heating to keep their inhabitants warm? if the new homes were built with dependency on oil for heating then these new homes would ideally be target customers for ci, but if not then essentially they are lost customers for ci as they would not have the means to use the product.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.5 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 13 15
No. of Words: 537 350
No. of Characters: 2545 1500
No. of Different Words: 203 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.814 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.739 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.577 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 159 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 124 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 80 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 54 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 41.308 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 24.916 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.462 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.408 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.622 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.162 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 4 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 157, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: They
...coming and increasing business demands. they claim that the number of days of below ...
^^^^
Line 1, column 402, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
...e increase in demand for their product. if demand for ci's product increases ...
^^
Line 4, column 1, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: Ci
...n the veracity of the claims made. ci makes the claim that homes in the unite...
^^
Line 4, column 364, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
... be electrical heating or wood heating. if oil is not the dominating option that h...
^^
Line 7, column 451, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
...low-average temperatures and oil sales. if increased oil sales were guaranteed for...
^^
Line 7, column 648, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
...rature days changing from year to year. if the number of cold days are increasing ...
^^
Line 7, column 648, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “if” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...rature days changing from year to year. if the number of cold days are increasing ...
^^
Line 7, column 793, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
...ase in demand in home-heating supplies. if the number of cold days is expected to ...
^^
Line 7, column 793, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Three successive sentences begin with the same word. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
...ase in demand in home-heating supplies. if the number of cold days is expected to ...
^^
Line 10, column 211, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: We
...ndoned or torn down in the same region. we are interested in the net increase of h...
^^
Line 10, column 671, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
...heating to keep their inhabitants warm? if the new homes were built with dependenc...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, if, look, so, then, while
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 30.0 19.6327345309 153% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 15.0 12.9520958084 116% => OK
Conjunction : 15.0 11.1786427146 134% => OK
Relative clauses : 13.0 13.6137724551 95% => OK
Pronoun: 29.0 28.8173652695 101% => OK
Preposition: 75.0 55.5748502994 135% => OK
Nominalization: 6.0 16.3942115768 37% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2605.0 2260.96107784 115% => OK
No of words: 537.0 441.139720559 122% => OK
Chars per words: 4.85102420857 5.12650576532 95% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.81386128306 4.56307096286 105% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.62441824655 2.78398813304 94% => OK
Unique words: 213.0 204.123752495 104% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.396648044693 0.468620217663 85% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 813.6 705.55239521 115% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 2.0 4.96107784431 40% => OK
Article: 2.0 8.76447105788 23% => OK
Subordination: 7.0 2.70958083832 258% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 19.0 19.7664670659 96% => OK
Sentence length: 28.0 22.8473053892 123% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively long.
Sentence length SD: 50.6885006656 57.8364921388 88% => OK
Chars per sentence: 137.105263158 119.503703932 115% => OK
Words per sentence: 28.2631578947 23.324526521 121% => OK
Discourse Markers: 1.89473684211 5.70786347227 33% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 4.0 5.15768463074 78% => More paragraphs wanted.
Language errors: 11.0 5.25449101796 209% => Less language errors wanted.
Sentences with positive sentiment : 13.0 8.20758483034 158% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 3.0 6.88822355289 44% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 3.0 4.67664670659 64% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.247503809661 0.218282227539 113% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.101745889649 0.0743258471296 137% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0699509831265 0.0701772020484 100% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.180645748065 0.128457276422 141% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0745443308938 0.0628817314937 119% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 15.5 14.3799401198 108% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 51.52 48.3550499002 107% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 13.0 12.197005988 107% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.15 12.5979740519 89% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.82 8.32208582834 94% => OK
difficult_words: 95.0 98.500998004 96% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 13.5 12.3882235529 109% => OK
gunning_fog: 13.2 11.1389221557 119% => OK
text_standard: 14.0 11.9071856287 118% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.