The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product, we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. This demand and the overall increase in clothing prices will make Sartorian's alpaca overcoats more profitable than ever before."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted
The vice president of Sartorian states that although we stopped producing one of our most popular products five years ago, it is a prudent decision to return to that production line due to a new wool supplier and appropriate situation of the market. This statement may seem tenable when give a cursory thought, but it engages in several logical fallacies, unsound reasoning and offers insufficient data.
First, the factory stopped its production about five years ago. This period is long enough for the market to undergo several drastic changes. For example, the tastes of the people are likely to have changed so much and they no longer have tendency for wool overcoats. The price of the wool may have risen so much, therefore throwing the assumption of high profit of the factory into question by imposing heavy costs and mearge profits. Another possibility is the change in climate, with warmer weather people usually show less predilection for warm clothes. These assumptions should be taken into account by the president of the factory.
Second, assuming that consumers are still in favor of these overcoats, how do we know that during past several years the company is still the first to offer this product? Due to high demands for this clothing, it is highly likely that other factories have preoccupied this niche of the market and satisfy the needs of the people by offering high-quality and fashionable overcoats. Thus, they have established their share of market and people do not risk to return to another new factory. This assumption, if true, renders the conclusion of the president void.
Third, the president claims that high demands and increment in the prices will lead to their higher profits. This assumption is raw, since higher price is due to more expensive materials. There is no guarantee that the factory will gain more profits than the past years, because economic instabilities may impose more costs of operation on the company. Moreover, whether the new fabric supplier provides satisfactory service and fabric is dubious.
In conclusion, the statements lack seriously in persuasiveness and cogency. The president should provide sufficient data regarding the market trend, people’s tastes, rivals, and production cost in order to make sound and logical conclusions.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
also need to argue:
Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production.
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.5 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 18 15
No. of Words: 371 350
No. of Characters: 1882 1500
No. of Different Words: 204 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.389 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.073 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.596 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 147 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 110 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 63 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 47 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 20.611 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 9.032 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.667 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.298 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.528 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.046 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, first, if, may, moreover, regarding, second, so, still, therefore, third, thus, for example, in conclusion
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 12.0 19.6327345309 61% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 7.0 12.9520958084 54% => OK
Conjunction : 13.0 11.1786427146 116% => OK
Relative clauses : 8.0 13.6137724551 59% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 27.0 28.8173652695 94% => OK
Preposition: 46.0 55.5748502994 83% => OK
Nominalization: 12.0 16.3942115768 73% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1936.0 2260.96107784 86% => OK
No of words: 371.0 441.139720559 84% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.21832884097 5.12650576532 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.38877662729 4.56307096286 96% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.70041047041 2.78398813304 97% => OK
Unique words: 209.0 204.123752495 102% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.563342318059 0.468620217663 120% => OK
syllable_count: 591.3 705.55239521 84% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 8.0 4.96107784431 161% => OK
Article: 7.0 8.76447105788 80% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 18.0 19.7664670659 91% => OK
Sentence length: 20.0 22.8473053892 88% => OK
Sentence length SD: 51.6506845054 57.8364921388 89% => OK
Chars per sentence: 107.555555556 119.503703932 90% => OK
Words per sentence: 20.6111111111 23.324526521 88% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.16666666667 5.70786347227 108% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 0.0 5.25449101796 0% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 8.20758483034 122% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 3.0 6.88822355289 44% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.137840428975 0.218282227539 63% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.039556266368 0.0743258471296 53% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0416071737346 0.0701772020484 59% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0750139129321 0.128457276422 58% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0445080750554 0.0628817314937 71% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.5 14.3799401198 94% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 51.18 48.3550499002 106% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.0 12.5979740519 103% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.93 8.32208582834 107% => OK
difficult_words: 101.0 98.500998004 103% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 9.0 12.3882235529 73% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.0 11.1389221557 90% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.