The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Also, a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe. Nevertheless, the nearest jazz club is over an hour away. Given the popularity of jazz in Monroe and a recent nationwide study indicating that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, we predict that our new jazz music club in Monroe will be a tremendously profitable enterprise."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The given argument to establish a jazz club in Monroe is flawed. Mainly because it assumes that the people of Monroe prefer jazz music over other generes of music.
The argument states that over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, however, fails to talk about how many people from Monroe attended the festival. It is possible that the mayor of Monroe organizes the annual jazz festival to increase tourism in the town and most of the people came to Monroe from nearby towns in order to attend the festival. Had the argument stated that most of the people in attendence lived in Monroe, then the argument would hold.
The application also mentions that Jazz Nightly is the highest rated radio program. However air time of the radio show is not mentioned. Since it airs on weekdays, it is normal for people returning back from office to turn on radio, and Jazz nightly might be the only radio show on air at the time most people commute back to work.
Another reason, why the argument does not hold is because it fails to distinguish Monroe's economic state from the rest of the nation. If there is huge unemployment in Monroe compared to the rest of the nation, the people of Monroe would prefer spending their money on groceries or necessities rather than spending $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment.
Because the argument makes several unwanted and unecessary assumption, it fails to make a convincing case that a new jazz music club in Monroe will be a tremendously profitable enterprise.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 2 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 5 2
No. of Sentences: 11 15
No. of Words: 261 350
No. of Characters: 1240 1500
No. of Different Words: 133 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.019 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.751 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.393 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 90 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 56 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 40 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 17 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 23.727 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 9.836 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.455 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.436 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.728 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.14 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 5, column 189, Rule ID: RETURN_BACK[1]
Message: Use simply 'returning'.
Suggestion: returning
...rs on weekdays, it is normal for people returning back from office to turn on radio, and Jazz ...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 7, column 314, Rule ID: COMMA_PARENTHESIS_WHITESPACE
Message: Put a space after the comma, but not before the comma
Suggestion: ,
...ries or necessities rather than spending ,000 per year on jazz entertainment. ...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, however, if, may, so, then
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 9.0 19.6327345309 46% => More to be verbs wanted.
Auxiliary verbs: 4.0 12.9520958084 31% => OK
Conjunction : 4.0 11.1786427146 36% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 6.0 13.6137724551 44% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 13.0 28.8173652695 45% => OK
Preposition: 40.0 55.5748502994 72% => OK
Nominalization: 11.0 16.3942115768 67% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1272.0 2260.96107784 56% => More number of characters wanted.
No of words: 261.0 441.139720559 59% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 4.87356321839 5.12650576532 95% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.0193898071 4.56307096286 88% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.46803376707 2.78398813304 89% => OK
Unique words: 134.0 204.123752495 66% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.513409961686 0.468620217663 110% => OK
syllable_count: 390.6 705.55239521 55% => syllable counts are too short.
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 4.0 8.76447105788 46% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 11.0 19.7664670659 56% => Need more sentences. Double check the format of sentences, make sure there is a space between two sentences, or have enough periods. And also check the lengths of sentences, maybe they are too long.
Sentence length: 23.0 22.8473053892 101% => OK
Sentence length SD: 56.2032909833 57.8364921388 97% => OK
Chars per sentence: 115.636363636 119.503703932 97% => OK
Words per sentence: 23.7272727273 23.324526521 102% => OK
Discourse Markers: 2.90909090909 5.70786347227 51% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 3.0 8.20758483034 37% => More positive sentences wanted.
Sentences with negative sentiment : 4.0 6.88822355289 58% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.357723655893 0.218282227539 164% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.147083638081 0.0743258471296 198% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.108584214291 0.0701772020484 155% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.197961284234 0.128457276422 154% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0993661229969 0.0628817314937 158% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.4 14.3799401198 93% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 56.59 48.3550499002 117% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.26 12.5979740519 89% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.23 8.32208582834 99% => OK
difficult_words: 57.0 98.500998004 58% => More difficult words wanted.
linsear_write_formula: 9.0 12.3882235529 73% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.2 11.1389221557 101% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.