A recently issued twenty year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin a medicine used to treat headaches Al

The author predicts that the residents of Mentia will have very few headache problems in the future. The author has come to this conclusion on the belief that the use of salicylates and the fall in headache problems in the people have direct correlation, and many food companies will use salicylates in their food as food preservative and flavor additives. At the first glance, the argument seems plausible; however, on closer scrutiny, several alternative explanations could be made which can seriously weaken the conclusion. The author needs to answer following questions in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable.
Firstly, are the salicylates and aspirin are functionally same? Does the consumption of these two chemical substances have the same effects on the health of humans? If so then where are the evidences to convince us? Why not the medical experts are using salicylates as the substitute of aspirin? It is highly possible that they are not functionally similar. The author naively assumes that being in the same chemical family they should have same chemical function. However, it might not be true given the lack of evidence. For instance, though the two alcohols—ethanol and methanol— belongs to the same alcohol group, they have different chemical properties; ethanol is edible as an alcoholic beverage, whereas methanol is not: consumption of methanol is dangerous and even fatal. The author should provide the answers to the above questions in order to support his argument.
Secondly, are the consumption of salicylate present in food stuffs and decline in the headache problems in the people of Mentia has direct relationship? Where are the data evidences to validate this study? Are there no any external factors playing for this decline? The author presumptuously assumes that the people of Mentia are consuming food containing salicylates. However, it might not be true. It is highly possible that the people of Mentia are consuming mostly the organic food stuffs grown in their field. It is also possible that the people of Mentia are being more health conscious and so they are strictly conducting environment sanitation programs each week, they are doing regular exercise, barring unhygienic food stuffs, oily foods, drinks, and the like so, which could be the chief impetus for the decline in headache problems. The author needs to provide persuasive answers to the abovementioned questions in order to buttress his argument.
Thirdly, on what basis and by what amount the companies are going to add salicylates in their products? Does this addition will not have any side effects on the health of humans? The author naively assumes that this addition of salicylates in the food products would favor the people of all age group, and would not result in any side effects even if such products are consumed regularly. However, this assumption falls short given the lack of evidence. It is highly possible that it could have some negative effects on the lives of people on long run; otherwise medical experts would have disclosed its benefit to the general public. Further, the author fails to provide information of the source of salicylates as industrial salicylates could have vast negative impacts on human health. Similarly, what is the expertise of the health experts to rely on the predictions? Have they ever predicted the chemical efficacies of drugs before? Are their predictions proved fruitful, at least at once? Unless the author provides the answers to these questions, the argument cannot be evaluated.
In conclusion, though the argument sounds plausible, it lacks persuasiveness as it is rife with holes and unwarranted assumptions. The author needs to provide answers to the questions mentioned earlier in order to support his argument. Unless the author provides the answers to these questions, the argument remains highly dubious and cannot be reasonably established.