The following is a memorandum from the business manager of a television station Over the past year our late night news program has devoted increased time to national news and less time to weather and local news During this time period most of the complain

While this business manager's memorandum expresses earnest concern over the fate of the late-night news program, their recommendations lack backing from adequate evidence and should not be taken without further investigation. Without further details on the amounts of complaints and nature of the complaints, the reason businesses have canceled their contracts, and an understanding of late-night viewership, the station cannot expect to save their advertising revenues and attract viewers by simply shifting their coverage of national news to local news and weather.

The first reason the manager cites to restore weather and local news to its former level is that the majority of complaints received after the shift concerned the station's coverage of weather and local news. While it is possible that these complaints should be seriously considered, the manager does not give enough information to determine whether these complaints have affected viewership. First, while the manager explains that most complaints have been about the weather, it is possible the total complains have decreased. Perhaps increasing time to national news decreased the complaints regarding national news coverage far more than an increase in local news and weather coverage complaints. The manager is also assuming that the complaints regarding the weather and local news coverage want the station to increase coverage. It is entirely possible that the nature of the complaints are against the coverage of weather and local news. If this is the case, it is possible that decreasing weather and local news coverage would placate these viewers more than an increase would. Clearly, the station should not shift the ratio of national news to local news and weather based on the viewer complaints mentioned by the manager.

The second reason listed by the manager for a shift in airtime to local news and weather from national news is that local businesses have canceled their advertising contracts. While this is a concerning development, the manager does not make clear that the businesses have canceled their contracts because of the shift in coverage, and that they will renew their contracts if local news and weather receive more airtime. There are a number of reasons local businesses could have canceled their contracts unrelated to the coverage of the late-night program. If the region is undergoing an economic depression, perhaps it is no longer in the budget of these businesses to have television commercials. The problem could also be an issue with the pricing of the advertising contracts—it is possible the station has ceased to offer competitive prices for these ad spots. If these businesses are better off with contracts from another station, changing the coverage ratio will not persuade them to renew their contracts. Though the manager and the station might justifiably be concerned with the dearth of interest from local businesses in advertising contracts, a deeper investigation of businesses' reasons for cancellation is needed before taking coverage action.

Finally, the manager claims that the station will attract more viewers by restoring time to weather and local news, but provides no evidence to support this. In fact, the manager does not even assert that the television station has lost viewers from shifting the coverage times in the first place. It is therefore possible that the station has gained viewers since its shift, and that restoring coverage times might dissuade viewers from tuning in as regularly. Even if the television station has lost late-night viewership, restoring times does not mean their viewership will be restored. External factors like the existence of a new, popular late-night program might prevent viewers from returning even if they did prefer local news and weather from national news. For these reasons, the station cannot expect to gain viewers by restoring coverage proportions.

The business manager has good reason to worry about the fiscal health of the late-night news program and is justified in attempting to find a better strategy. Unfortunately, the reasons the manager lists are insufficient and no