Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
The argument that predicts an augmentation of oil demand and recommends investments in consolidated industries is well-presented yet far-fetched. The author fails to take into consideration that what holds for the past may not preserve its course for the future. Furthermore, a vague statement is made by the writer about the construction of new houses. Accordingly, the author's reasoning for such an idea is not potently established and the argument is rife with holes and fallacious assumptions.
To begin with, the author lays the claim based on the fallacious assumption that what held true formerly will hold faithful today. He erroneously believes that the oil will continue to be the primary source of heating in homes in the northeastern United States since traditionally it was widely utilized. Unfortunately, he fails to account for the altering course of things with the passage of time. Obviously, with the drastic growth of technology, new methods and equipment have been invented to supplant the archaic and obsolete ones which provide far-reaching options for people to pick and make use of. A possible alternative to oil-consuming heating equipment is the new electric-consuming heating system that promises a more efficient and economical option for the customers. Consequently, the consumption of oil for heating not only can be supplanted but totally eliminated by the introduction of new equipment that takes advantage of other sources for heating rather than oil. If the argument presented some clues about the unaltered inclination toward using oil as the major heating source, then the argument would have been a lot more convincing.
To add, the author asserts that the glacial weather pattern that occurred last year will preserve its course for several more years. He refers to a twenty-day frigid period with below-average temperatures. Yet, the evidence remains vague since he fails to address certain details any further such as how much the temperature was below the normal? The region's cold period might be just a few centigrades below the average temperatures that render it too trivial to account for a drastic increase in oil demand. The author should bolster his argument by noting that the weather was remarkably below the average, by using meteorology statistics in the past year, that necessitated augmentation in oil consumption for heating. Furthermore, a twenty-day frigid period is a relatively short time to bring about such a great alteration in oil demands. Additionally, there are still other factors such as the accuracy of climate prediction that can significantly weaken the argument. We cannot assure that weather forecasters' prognostication was authentic and reliable or they might have misinterpreted the data that predicts the future weather conditions. Some abrupt climatic changes may alter the temperature in a way that hardly induces the citizens to use more heat.
The last but not least, the author makes a vague reference to the construction of new houses in the region to account for the population growth and respectively amplification of demand for the oil. This is an instance of the fallacy of ungrounded assumption since the construction may have been due to the demands of denizens to replace the age-old houses with modern and brand-new ones. Accordingly, in light of the lack of specific detail regarding this, we conclude that the new houses do not necessarily entail new citizens. The claim should be fortified by additional details about the growth of the population in the region, according to surveys and statistics, who are settled in the new homes. In addition, the newly-constructed buildings may include thermal-insular materials that preclude the exhaust of heat significantly. Consequently, they will reduce the thermal-waste and respectively requirements for additional oil.
To recapitulate, the author's argument is based on logically flawed assumptions according to the above-mentioned reasons. The author should closely examine all other factors and assumptions before making claims. Additional information is needed to bolster the claim that the region will experience an increased demand for heating oil in the future.
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Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 8 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 19 2
No. of Sentences: 29 15
No. of Words: 656 350
No. of Characters: 3497 1500
No. of Different Words: 308 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 5.061 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.331 4.6
Word Length SD: 3.124 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 267 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 203 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 146 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 106 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 22.621 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 6.52 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.517 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.265 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.305 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.096 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 2 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 4, column 1006, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'forecasters'' or 'forecaster's'?
Suggestion: forecasters'; forecaster's
...argument. We cannot assure that weather forecasters prognostication was authentic and relia...
^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 6, column 22, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...r additional oil. To recapitulate, the authors argument is based on logically flawed a...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
accordingly, but, consequently, furthermore, if, may, regarding, so, still, then, well, in addition, such as, to begin with
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 22.0 19.6327345309 112% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 18.0 12.9520958084 139% => OK
Conjunction : 17.0 11.1786427146 152% => OK
Relative clauses : 20.0 13.6137724551 147% => OK
Pronoun: 33.0 28.8173652695 115% => OK
Preposition: 86.0 55.5748502994 155% => OK
Nominalization: 35.0 16.3942115768 213% => Less nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 3555.0 2260.96107784 157% => OK
No of words: 656.0 441.139720559 149% => Less content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.41920731707 5.12650576532 106% => OK
Fourth root words length: 5.06087906887 4.56307096286 111% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.18388417467 2.78398813304 114% => OK
Unique words: 322.0 204.123752495 158% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.490853658537 0.468620217663 105% => OK
syllable_count: 1108.8 705.55239521 157% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 8.0 4.96107784431 161% => OK
Article: 18.0 8.76447105788 205% => Less articles wanted as sentence beginning.
Subordination: 1.0 2.70958083832 37% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 8.0 4.22255489022 189% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 29.0 19.7664670659 147% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 37.3637516926 57.8364921388 65% => OK
Chars per sentence: 122.586206897 119.503703932 103% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.6206896552 23.324526521 97% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.24137931034 5.70786347227 74% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 11.0 8.20758483034 134% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 13.0 6.88822355289 189% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.272175753903 0.218282227539 125% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0681153917866 0.0743258471296 92% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0516471704747 0.0701772020484 74% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.135889455298 0.128457276422 106% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0839553493155 0.0628817314937 134% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 15.4 14.3799401198 107% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 40.69 48.3550499002 84% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 13.1 12.197005988 107% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 14.45 12.5979740519 115% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 9.37 8.32208582834 113% => OK
difficult_words: 193.0 98.500998004 196% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.5 12.3882235529 93% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Write the essay in 30 minutes.
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.