The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The author recommends an investment in oil retailers, called Consolidated Industries because upcoming freezing weather results in increasing oil demand for more newly built houses to heat and oil is a primary source to heat house. It is easy to understand why residents need more oil, but this argument is rife with holes and assumptions and unsubstantiated to invest in oil retailers.
In the paragraph, the author implies that if the investment is not executed, the oil demand will not satisfy demand and become shortage in the future. it could be true if the oil supply is already mostly reaching the production upper limitation. For example, , say, current the demand of the oil occupies 90% of oil retailers’ capacity and there is 10% increasing need per year in the following years due to colder weather. nevertheless, it can’t be a cogent reason to invest retailers because of the assumption is unclear and unwarranted. For example, the demand may occupy only 10% retailers supply currently, and there is only 5% increasing rate in the following years. In this case, there is no urgent demand in current status and no rush to increase oil production. only the author can elaborate on the utilization rate about supply and demand, the implication is not convincing.
Additionally, the author suggests that area experienced 90 days with below normal temperatures in last heating season and the same weather pattern persist in several years by forecasts. The statement may be a truth. For example, if an authoritative or official weather bureau made the climate forecasts due to this particular climate patterns will exacerbate freezing in the following years and 90 days low temperature is just a start of the case, the heating demand will conceivably increases. nevertheless, the strategy or direction could be totally different if the prediction is not reliable, because increasing oil demand is based on upcoming colder weather. For example, if an inexperienced college studying in climate engenders this forecasts, the result is not obviously cogent. Unless the weather prediction is fully representative, valid and reliable, it can’t be used to back the author’s argument.
Building upon the insinuation that current oil supply of retailers are barely to cope with upcoming increasing demanding in the future. The author suggests investing oil retailer to supply the arisen demanding of petroleum. this assumption could be correct if the petroleum supply bottleneck is the amount of oil for retailers to import from oil manufacturer to local oil stores. For example, because retailers do not have enough budget to import oil to supply the increased demand, investment conceivably helps them to import more oils to sell and satisfy the demand. However, if the supply bottleneck does not present in the retailers, but the manufacturers. For instance, given that oil manufacturers production speed is slow due to insufficient equipment, investing retailers is barely to help escalate oil supply. Regardless if the retailers are able to use money to expand the supply or not, the author does not effectively show the connection between retailers investment and demand satisfactory.
Because the decisive action of arguments highly depends on these assumptions and there exists unsubstantiated implications, therefore the author needs to answer the above questions to strength his or her argument.
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Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 18 15
No. of Words: 539 350
No. of Characters: 2804 1500
No. of Different Words: 233 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.818 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.202 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.937 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 231 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 163 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 122 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 93 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 29.944 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 13.93 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.722 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.365 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.587 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.139 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...tantiated to invest in oil retailers. In the paragraph, the author implies tha...
^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 163, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: It
...mand and become shortage in the future. it could be true if the oil supply is alre...
^^
Line 3, column 270, Rule ID: COMMA_PARENTHESIS_WHITESPACE
Message: Put a space after the comma, but not before the comma
Suggestion: ,
...roduction upper limitation. For example, , say, current the demand of the oil occu...
^^
Line 3, column 441, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: Nevertheless
... following years due to colder weather. nevertheless, it can't be a cogent reason to in...
^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 793, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: Only
...and no rush to increase oil production. only the author can elaborate on the utiliza...
^^^^
Line 5, column 485, Rule ID: DID_BASEFORM[1]
Message: The verb 'will' requires the base form of the verb: 'increase'
Suggestion: increase
...se, the heating demand will conceivably increases. nevertheless, the strategy or directio...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 496, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: Nevertheless
...ting demand will conceivably increases. nevertheless, the strategy or direction could be tot...
^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 7, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...d to back the author's argument. Building upon the insinuation that curre...
^^
Line 7, column 227, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: This
...pply the arisen demanding of petroleum. this assumption could be correct if the petr...
^^^^
Line 9, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...s investment and demand satisfactory. Because the decisive action of arguments...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, however, if, may, nevertheless, so, therefore, for example, for instance
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 26.0 19.6327345309 132% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 13.0 12.9520958084 100% => OK
Conjunction : 21.0 11.1786427146 188% => OK
Relative clauses : 4.0 13.6137724551 29% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 17.0 28.8173652695 59% => OK
Preposition: 59.0 55.5748502994 106% => OK
Nominalization: 23.0 16.3942115768 140% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2900.0 2260.96107784 128% => OK
No of words: 539.0 441.139720559 122% => OK
Chars per words: 5.38033395176 5.12650576532 105% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.81833721656 4.56307096286 106% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.08450872936 2.78398813304 111% => OK
Unique words: 247.0 204.123752495 121% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.458256029685 0.468620217663 98% => OK
syllable_count: 902.7 705.55239521 128% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 12.0 8.76447105788 137% => OK
Subordination: 7.0 2.70958083832 258% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 23.0 19.7664670659 116% => OK
Sentence length: 23.0 22.8473053892 101% => OK
Sentence length SD: 52.689086978 57.8364921388 91% => OK
Chars per sentence: 126.086956522 119.503703932 106% => OK
Words per sentence: 23.4347826087 23.324526521 100% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.34782608696 5.70786347227 59% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 10.0 5.25449101796 190% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 5.0 8.20758483034 61% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 13.0 6.88822355289 189% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.152727010715 0.218282227539 70% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0522163719372 0.0743258471296 70% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0398524529342 0.0701772020484 57% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0883626412385 0.128457276422 69% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0480638108992 0.0628817314937 76% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 15.6 14.3799401198 108% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 39.67 48.3550499002 82% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 13.4 12.197005988 110% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 14.22 12.5979740519 113% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.7 8.32208582834 105% => OK
difficult_words: 134.0 98.500998004 136% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 13.5 12.3882235529 109% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.2 11.1389221557 101% => OK
text_standard: 14.0 11.9071856287 118% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.